Hail in Minnesota, March 21, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
316 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM IS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET CROSSING THE CWA TONIGHT.
LAPS DEPICTS NEGATIVE 850 MB LIFTED INDICES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET HAS GENERATED
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THESE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT...BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SPRING SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO
CLOSE TO MAV/MEX VALUES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED MAX T GRIDS UPWARD FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

IN THE LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT 500 MB...THE 21/00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN RESEMBLES THE 21/00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAR
WEAKER WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE FOR SUNDAY...THAN THE 21/06Z
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. THE 21/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN IS SUSPECT IN
THAT IT BRINGS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOSED 500 MB LOW TOWARD SWRN
MN...BUT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS NOT ON THE THICKNESS
RIDGE...TO THE EAST...BUT RATHER LOCATED IN THE COLDER THICKNESS
VALUES TO THE NORTHWEST...IN OTHER WORDS...THE SFC LOW IS TILTING
THE WRONG DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT. THUS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO BE THE ONE IMPACTING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS QUITE STRONG ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
(21/00Z VERSION) AS WELL AS THE 21/06Z AND 21/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL
RUNS. WHAT ALL THE ABOVE MEANS IS THAT WE WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AS DELINEATED BY THE HPC GRIDS. THIS AUGERS FOR A WET
PERIOD.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RJN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
908 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
221100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
908 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE RUNNING FROM SAINT JAMES
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ULM TO LAKEVILLE AND EAST TO EAU CLAIRE. A
FEW COMMUNITIES IN THIS RISK AREA INCLUDE...FARIBAULT...OWATONNA
ALBERT LEA...MANKATO...CHIPPAWA FALLS AND EAU CLAIRE. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ENTER THE FORECAST PICTURE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.