Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 23, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1025 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS DECK IS HAVING A HARD TIME ERODING THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH INVERSION. HOLES HOWEVER ARE OPENING AND
STRATUS DECK SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS
ENDED...ALTHOUGH TOWERING CU SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR AND JUST
N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ATTM. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF FA
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY A BIT FURTHER W...HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007/

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WEAKEN STATE FROM
WHEN IT WAS AFFECTING NWRN MN YESTERDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT EVENTUALLY THIS LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY
LATER THIS MORNING.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW CONVECTION REDEVELOPING TODAY
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES...CLOSE TO A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SRN
CANADA. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS AREA TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...LESS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND
TO A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
CREST OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DISCUSSED IN SWODY2.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THEN BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EWD TOWARDS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE PROGGED TO
TRACK ENE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
AGAIN POSSIBLY SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHLAND
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTHSHORE TODAY...THEN FOR MOST LAKESHORE AREAS ON SUNDAY AS MORE
ERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

AVIATION...IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS WERE SURGING NORTH AND WILL
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP OR RISE TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...GENERALLY
DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SEE THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES
IN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KGPZ...KBRD...KPWC AND
KXVG AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN FORM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  58  84  58 /  10  10  10  10
INL  87  62  87  61 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  87  62  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  85  58  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  84  58  85  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

GSF/CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
524 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-241030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
524 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...A FEW OF THEM MAY BE
STRONG PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BERDES