Hail in Minnesota, August 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
MN..WITH DIFFUSE SFC COLD/PRE FRONTAL TROF FRONT TRYING TO MAKE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. CURRENTLY..FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF INL..SSWWD TO JUST WEST OF BRD TO NEAR ABR. AIRMASS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE..AND WELL-
SHEARED..BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT SEEMS TO BE LACKING WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS. RATHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE NRN DLH CWA IN THE PAST HOUR
HOWEVER..SO STORM POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS ANYWHERE EAST OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. KINEMATIC PARAMETERS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH ANY STORMS..AND A TENDENCY TOWARD
LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IF/WHEN STORMS DEVELOP.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER THE SRN
SECTION OF THE CWA ALSO SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL..BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

FRONT AND THREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE SE PART OF THE DLH CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT..WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A COOLER DAY WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER..
AND DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK..BROAD/RELATIVELY FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO SET UP FROM THE WRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SEWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION..ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
JUST ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE PIRMARY JET AXIS. SUCH A
PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MCS PROPAGATION
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER..AT THIS
TIME..IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THERMAL RIBBON POSITION MAY BE FAR
ENUF SOUTHWEST TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE DLH CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED OVER NW
WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND FORNTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  59  76  47 /  50  40   0   0
INL  81  55  74  45 /  50  10   0   0
BRD  84  60  79  55 /  60  20   0   0
HYR  86  61  83  47 /  40  50   0   0
ASX  83  61  78  48 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

 MILLER/EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-121200-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY
FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS... TO LEECH LAKE... TO NISSWA ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3 AND 10 PM... IN AREAS FROM LAKE
MILLE LACS AND AITKIN... EASTWARD TO HINCKLEY... PINE CITY...
HAYWARD... MINONG... AND SPOONER.  THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO AN
INCH IN DIAMETER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH STORMS ENDING BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

 MILLER