A small cluster of thunderstorms produced severe weather in Leelanau County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A small cluster of thunderstorms produced severe weather in Leelanau County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 2:36 AM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 336 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007 .DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD RIDGE ENCOMPASSING AREAS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING THE TOP OF THIS HEAT RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RECOVER BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...BUT LOOKING AT ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MIDWEEK WHICH SHOULD USHER IN A PERIOD OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER. FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL FIRST DEAL WITH A CLOSING WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM SLICES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE ON RETURNING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AND POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. TODAY/TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHWEST WI/WESTERN IA/SOUTHEAST NE...WITH A DECENT ISALLOBARIC PUSH IN ITS WAKE (PRESSURE RISES 2-4MB/3HR). MAIN SHOW OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN AN IMPRESSIVE BOW ECHO PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO SOUTHERN WI (72MPH WIND GUST AT RST EARLIER). THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STOLEN THE SHOW THUS FAR... STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN WITH THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WHICH IS ALSO PROBABLY IMPACTING MOIST INFLOW INTO NORTHERN MI. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG WHAT WAS PROBABLY THE REMAINS OF AN MCV FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOW ECHO AROUND GREEN BAY...AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF MCS STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AREA...WITH SOME SHOWERS ALSO POPPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS UPPER MI/NORTHERN WI/NORTHERN LOWER MI HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK...850MB WINDS OF AREA VWPS SHOWING MOSTLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN/EASTERN WI (PROBABLY DUE MORE TO THE ADVECTION COMPONENT THAN ANYTHING ELSE)...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN HELPING TO GENERATE AFOREMENTIONED NEW CONVECTION AIDED BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WILL BASICALLY USE LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO ADJUST POP FORECAST THIS MORNING...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE BEST QPF POTENTIAL IS ALONG M-55 CORRIDOR. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HEATING MAY SEE A DIURNAL BOOST TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR AREAS CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY BEFORE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL GRADUALLY END RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR INTO NORTHERN MI. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE STATE...SO LOOKING AT A NICE DAY WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO LOW FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT (POSSIBLY DROPPING NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW 30 PERCENT). MEANWHILE... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL MEET UP WITH RETURN FLOW OF WARM/MOIST AIR AROUND WEST SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MN AND/OR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL PROBABLY TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST...SO HOW MUCH OF THIS MAY EVENTUALLY IMPACT NORTHERN LOWER IS A LITTLE TOO MESOSCALE TO DISCERN THIS FAR OUT. BUT DONT HAVE ANY REASON TO ALTER CURRENT LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-75 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MARINE ISSUES...COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND A DECENT ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BY TODAY. SHALLOW MIXED LAYER DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKES BY THIS EVENING AS 925MB TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID TEENS...WITH 20-30KT WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY INTO TONIGHT...AND SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...SO CURRENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK FINE...DRY AND COOL AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT UP IN THE AIR AS ANOTHER SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY BE IN THE OFFING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY/COLLABORATION SAKE. JPB && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 449 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007 LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008- 015>036-041-042-131000- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON- MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY- ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE- CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE- GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- 449 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THERE IS A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LAKE HURON BEACHES OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH SEASONABLE MID AUGUST TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. JPB
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:59 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were blown down, and a fruit stand was destroyed along M-72.
A lightning strike ignited a fire, which destroyed a three-car garage and a boat that was inside, and melted vinyl siding on an adjacent home.
A large tree was blown down.|
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 54427, 54429, 54428.