A severe thunderstorm developed over portions of Flyod and Pike counties late in the afternoon of September 26, 2007. A stationary front over Western Kentucky, combined with daytime heating, allowed for the severe thunderstorm to develop.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A severe thunderstorm developed over portions of Flyod and Pike counties late in the afternoon of September 26, 2007. A stationary front over Western Kentucky, combined with daytime heating, allowed for the severe thunderstorm to develop. Numerous trees were reported down, along with some structural damage to homes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 26, 10:10 AM EST, 57 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1110 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007 .SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES...BUT OTHERWISE WE ARE STILL DRY. THERE SHOULD NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A LACK OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR NW. HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON POPS...WITH THE END RESULT BEING AN EXPANDED 20 PERCENT POP INTO SOME PLACES WHERE IT HAD BEEN 30 PERCENT...AND A MAX POP OF JUST 40 PERCENT IN THE FAR NW. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...MODELS DO DISPLAY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN TIMING OF EVENTS...MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT GRADUALLY MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. CONSEQUENTLY...MAIN CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE JUST TWEAKS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE FOR THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS INFLUENCES FROM THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. CONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUNS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR THURSDAY PROPER AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SHIED AWAY FROM CATEGORICAL POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO THE DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR CCF AND COLLABORATION PURPOSES. .LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH AND RIDGING MOVE TO OUR EAST...THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANGE IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONCERNING THIS CHANGE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ONLY A COUPLE OF THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE ECMWF...SHOWING AN UPPER LOW BEING LEFT BEHIND BY A WESTERN TROF AND THEN NEARLY STALLING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS FOR A TIME EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW...TAKING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND INTO SE CANADA...AND THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. EVEN FOLLOWING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ITS AFFECT ON THIS AREA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A DYING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... BUT NEVER BRINGING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS. BASED ON SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME PRECIP...SO HAVE USED A 20 PERCENT POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MEXMOS TEMPS...WHICH WERE ALL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/ OUT HERE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT... ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. INCLUDED A CB CLOUD TYPE TO INDICATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...DURING THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT ...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS EAST KENTUCKY SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR THESE TOWARD SUNSET EVOLVING INTO A PREVAILING GROUP TOWARD MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...RAY/HAL LONG TERM....HAL AVIATION...GREIF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 603 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 603 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...COMING TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAY
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:05 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees down between Stanville and Betsy Layne, mainly near Highway 460. Roof damage in Stanville allowed heavy rain to collapse building onto first floor. Building interior heavily damage by torrential rain.
A few pieces of siding, shingles and gutters loosened and/or blown off of homes along Mare Creek.
A few pieces of siding, shingles and gutters loosened and/or blown off of homes along Mare Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 53477, 53478, 53479.