A warm front acted as a focus for a heavy rain event over east central Kentucky.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A warm front acted as a focus for a heavy rain event over east central Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 5, 2:16 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 316 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EAST OF LOUISVILLE AND FORT KNOX AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WEST OF ENGLISH AND PAOLI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WERE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SUNSHINE BROKE THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTH LATER TONIGHT...AND THE DRIER AIR AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE HIGH DROPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SCHOLZ .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING MUCH OF PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS SHOWN AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH OVER ROCKIES AND DEEP VORTEX PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF EAST COAST OF U.S. AS THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS OH VALLEY LATE SUNDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUING THRU MID NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER...PLENTY OF DAYTIME SUNSHINE...AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY...SOUTHERN PART OF WESTERN TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. 12 UTC RUNS OF OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS AS WELL AS 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO OH VALLEY STARTING THURSDAY RESULTING IN SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER... OVERALL FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE...ALBEIT WEAKENED...WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS NRN PART OF FORECAST AREA WOULD STAND BEST CHANCE FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS STARTING THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING INTO NEXT SATURDAY. MORNING LOW TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S OVER EAST-CENTRAL KY AND MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 70S WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S BY MID WEEK. TWF && .AVIATION DISCUSSION (18Z TAFS)... UPPER LOW HAD MOVED EAST INTO NORTHEAST KY AT 17Z WITH AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOW TO THE EAST TAF SITES. HOWEVER WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR LEX...IN THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BE OVER LEX WITH MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS SDF AND BWG TAFS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WITH THE AIR MOVING LITTLE WILL ALLOW SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SCHOLZ && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-060830- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN- CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY- BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY- JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY- TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY- ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY- CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- 400 PM EDT (300 PM CDT) SAT MAY 5 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY INCLUDING LEXINGTON AND COUNTIES SOUTH OF LEXINGTON. WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THROUGH THIS EVENING...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING OR WATER OVER ROADWAYS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE. TWF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 301 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007 KYZ047-055-056-052015- MERCER KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRODSBURG...DANVILLE...LANCASTER 301 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007 ...STRONG STORMS SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON... AT 300 PM EDT STORMS WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY SMALL HAIL WERE STRETCHED ALONG A LINE FROM HARRODSBURG TO JUST EAST OF DANVILLE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GARRARD COUNTY SOUTH OF LANCASTER. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 300 PM AND 400 PM EDT. BEWARE OF STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS. REDUCE YOUR SPEED AND INCREASE THE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND THE CAR IN FRONT OF YOU. 13
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:18 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter estimated from two and a half to three inches of rain over a 30 minute period. Drakes Creek Road flooded and lost blacktop in two locations. Three people were trapped in a pickup truck. A metal outbuilding was washed away.
A foot of water covered Tates Creek Road next to the New Circle Road overpass.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 37012, 37015.