Flash Flood in Kansas, September 8, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT UNDERWAY.

SFC COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS MAINTAINED AN ELONGATED...ALTHOUGH NARROW...BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SALEM/ROUND SPRINGS WESTWARD THROUGH
SPRINGFIELD INTO JOPLIN AND POINTS SOUTHWESTWARD.

ALOFT...AN UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS IS PARALLEL AND
NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE STALLED SFC FRONT. UPPER
LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH AN ENHANCE AREA OF LIFT
POISED TO ENTER THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
COLDER CLOUD TOPS VIA IR SAT IMAGERY AND CONCENTRATION OF CG
LIGHTNING ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR PORTION
OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALREADY INUNDATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR THIS MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATES MATCHING UP WITH INCOMING
RAINFALL REPORTS TO THIS POINT. WIDESPREAD TWO TO SIX INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BARTON AND DADE...ALL
OF JASPER AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AS WELL AS MUCH OF GREENE COUNTY.
WITH ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF RAIN POISED TO MOVE INTO THIS
AREA...IT WILL NOT BE UNHEARD OF TO SEE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEED
10 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS.

A DANGEROUS FLOOD EVENT IS UNFOLDING WHICH WILL FEATURE BOTH FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WELCOME RAINS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER THIS REGION. EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL POSE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE MORE WATER
THAN ANY OTHER PART OF THE CWA.

A WET DAY INDEED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.

GAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/245 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007/

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECENT
HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED PERIODS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL...TOPOGRAPHY...HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN...MORE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS MORNING HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AN 850 MB
FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT HAS SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ST LOUIS
TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD TO NEAR TULSA AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. ALONG THIS FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING BUT THE MORE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT IN OKLAHOMA.

THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH. MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL TODAY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUING NORTHWARD DRIFT OF THE 850
MB FRONT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA STATE LINE...PROVIDING
ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLING IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DUE TO THE
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...OVERRUNNING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...SATURATED SOILS AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE 850
MB FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...DRY AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUT AN END TO THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES
TO OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG A COLD FRONT. RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH
AIRFIELDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR NEAR SUNRISE.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

GCC

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...SEVERAL 24 HOUR RAINFALL
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BREAKING TODAY. BELOW ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS.

LOCATION        RECORD      RECORD DATE

SPRINGFIELD     2.14 INCHES     1990
JOPLIN          3.31 INCHES     1992
WEST PLAINS     1.38 INCHES     1968
VICHY           1.92 INCHES     1903

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
444 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2007

...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND PRODUCE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LAMAR TO OSAGE BEACH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE ELK RIVER...SPRING RIVER...AND JAMES RIVER AND
SHOAL CREEK WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE ELK RIVER...SPRING RIVER...JAMES RIVER AND
THE SHOAL CREEK WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AS THE EXCESS RUNOFF
CONTINUES TO DRAIN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING AND
ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
920 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E GOLDEN CITY         37.39N 94.04W
09/08/2007                   DADE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 160 IS CLOSED EAST OF GOLDEN CITY

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
939 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N CARTHAGE            37.21N 94.31W
09/08/2007                   JASPER             MO   AIRPLANE PILOT

            ROADSIDE PARK AND SPRING RIVER FLOODING AT 96 AND V HWYS

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
945 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     FLASH FLOOD      E CARTHAGE              37.18N 94.31W
09/08/2007                   JASPER             MO   AIRPLANE PILOT

            IN CARTHAGE AND DUE TO HIGH WATER STREETS CLOSED AT RIVER
            ST BETWEEN CHESTNUT AND CENTRAL AND BAKER ST BETWEEN OAK
            AND CHESTNUT

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
955 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E WACO                37.25N 94.58W
09/08/2007                   JASPER             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE SPRING RIVER IS OVER THE ROAD EAST OF WACO

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1002 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAMAR                   37.49N 94.28W
09/08/2007                   BARTON             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 71 CLOSED AT 160

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
09/08/2007                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPRING STREET IS CLOSED IN NEOSHO

&&

LDOOLEY