Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 19, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

TODAYS FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW HIGH TO GO ON POPS...
ESPECIALLY IN MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  SECONDARY DECISION CENTERS ON
TONIGHT AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER.

HAVE OPTED TO GO 20 POP BASICALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LARNED TO ASHLAND
LINE TODAY.  THERE IS A FEW STRAY THUNDER BOOMERS DOWN IN THE
HARPER CO OKLAHOMA AREA AS I WRITE.  THESE HAVE BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST ALL EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE IS RICH MOISTURE THERE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S.  PLUS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GBD-DDC AREA AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE NORTHWEST PART OF MY
CWA HEATS UP...THINK SOME OF THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY ADVECT BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CAUSE SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THERE.  SO...
HAVE BUMPED UP TO 20 POPS IN MY NORTH AND NORTHWEST CWA AS WELL...
AFTER 20Z OR SO AND INTO THE EVENING.

THIS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT...GIVING ABOUT THE SAME AREA (AND A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH) A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION.  THE FRONT SHOULD WASH
OUT EARLY ON THURSDAY AND WILL THUS REDUCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS TO 10
OR LESS.

TEMPERATURES WERE UNTOUCHED...FOR THE MOST PART.  TODAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY FOR HIGHS...PEAKING IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES.
AS THE FRONT WASHES NORTH ON THURSDAY...SUNSHINE WILL ABOUND AND
MODEL PROGS OF 850MB TEMPS FROM 20C EAST TO 25C WEST SHOULD BOOST
MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST SPOTS.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD OCCUR AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

DAYS 3-7...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED PUSH INTO THE DDC CWA FRIDAY AS A
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL KEEP THE 10-14 POPS GOING, BUT ADD IN WX TO THE GRIDS TO MAKE
MENTION IN THE FCST (ZFP).  ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER
ISOLATED GIVEN ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH H5 RIDGING
OVERHEAD.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY FADE AWAY AS THE BIG
ADVERTISED UPPER LOW OUT WEST AFFECTS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE/HEIGHT/WIND FIELDS WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED LEESIDE
RESPONSE.  A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY...NEXT SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP/WX GRIDS...BUT FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS DAY+6...WILL KEEP UNTOUCHED
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK FRONT WAS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH WIND DIRECTION PRIMARILY FROM 060 TO 090.  THESE
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH SLOWLY.
CURRENT TAF FOR DDC AND HYS INDICATES A DECREASE IN VISBY WITH LIGHT
FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY
IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE...LOW VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS HOWEVER, SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH
OF GCK AND DDC TERMINALS AND PERHAPS AFFECTING HYS TERMINAL AFTER
22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  63  90  63 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  86  60  91  61 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  88  61  88  61 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  87  64  91  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  85  64  89  64 /  20  20  10  10
P28  86  67  90  66 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN12/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201045-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
538 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2007 /438 AM MDT WED SEP 19 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST
OF LARNED TO ASHLAND LINE. AFTER 4 PM CDT TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF A SCOTT CITY TO LA CROSSE LINE. THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE IS
QUITE LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS DO INITIATE...THEY COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION NORTH A SCOTT CITY
TO LA CROSSE LINE AFTER 4 PM CDT TODAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12/25