Hail in Kansas, June 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
301 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAD THE CUT OFF LOW STILL OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT LATEST WV LOOP HAS IT STARTING TO MOVE OUT
INTO MN/WI. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT, LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FOR THIS EVENING, SHORT FUSE
COMPOSITE HAS CAPE VALUES 900 J/KG IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AND A WEAKENING CAP. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN CO/NM, AND THINK THAT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAKING
IT INTO OUR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS
WEAK AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE UPPER LOW HEADED
NORTHEAST, SO THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
DIE OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE NAM AND GFS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS, AND LOOKING ON WV THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. CONTINUED WITH AROUND 30 POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER MODERATE, AND SHEAR WILL STILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE, SO
STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE MOST PART.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL AT THE SFC. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO SET OFF CONVECTION, BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AS THE NAM BREAKS
OUT PRECIP YET AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP WHAT WE HAVE
GOING FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARMING TREND AS 850MB
TEMPS RETURN TO THE HIGH TEENS/LOW 20S C AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OFF. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S WE HAD GOING.

DAYS 3-7...

FCST EXCITEMENT THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR AROUND MID WEEK.  AS THE
WESTERLIES INCREASE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC, IT APPEARS A
DECENT S/WV TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
ABOUT WEDNESDAY.  PROBLEM THAT WILL EXIST LOCALLY WILL BE HOW FAR
EAST THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER GETS AND HOW WARM THE MID LEVELS TEMPS
WILL BE.  CAPPING WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE, AS WILL TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES.  MY GRIDS ALREADY HAD 20 TO
40 POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS MY EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND HAVE
NO JUSTIFICATION TO MODIFY AT THIS TIME.  ALSO, MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.

TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT LEE TROUGHING (WHICH IS
PROBABLE) AND A RETURN TO GULF MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

ANY CLOUD COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  82  58  85 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  55  82  55  85 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  56  80  58  85 /  30  30  30  10
LBL  56  82  57  85 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  55  81  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
P28  58  84  61  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN26/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
440 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007 /340 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, HOWEVER, NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SOME OF THESE
MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR SPOTTERS TODAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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