Lightning Strike in Iowa, July 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
420 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DECENT THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHING ACRS WESTERN IA WITH
STORMS FIRING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE FRONT. HAVE
SEEN A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...BUT PRIMARILY SCATTERED HEAVY
RAINERS WITH SOME GUSTY WIND.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL IA TODAY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WL DROP THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WL BE AMPLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE
MINNESOTA BORDER. THESE STORMS WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
AND EASTERN IA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  INITIALLY...THE
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ROTATING CELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING..HEAVY RAIN WL BECOME
THE PRIMARY THREAT.  BEST LOCATIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL BE IN OUR
FAR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE ABOVE ONE AND A HALF
INCHES WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES RATHER
MUDDLED AS SFC BOUNDARY WAFTS AROUND THE REGION.  NAM IS MORE
EMPHATIC WITH A PLACEMENT ACRS IA WHILE GFS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH.
HOWEVER...WL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE A LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF
THUNDER MOST AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. HAVE INCLUDED SMALL
POPS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEREAFTER...A
BIGGER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR APPEARS TO SHOVE THE FRONT SOUTH OF IA
WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z
NOW A LOT OF CHNGS TO THINKING FOR THE LATER PDS.  CONVECTION
ADVANCING IN FROM THE W AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE
STATE OVR NGT.  CONVECTION FM THE DKTS AND MN WL SPRD OVER THE N HLF
BY SNRS AND CONT BFR WEAKING IN THE AM.  FEEL FNTL BNDRY WL SINK
INTO THE STATE WITH A CHC OF ADNL TSRA DVLPMT WITH THAT IN THE FOD
MCW AND ALO AREAS LATE AFTN INTO ERY EVE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
201 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-161100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
201 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
HUMBOLDT TO TAMA. A FEW OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SOME OF THESE THESE...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ADDRESS THE SPECIFIC THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

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