Hail and Damaging Wind in Indiana, June 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

.SHORT DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING. LOOKING AT THE
LIFTED INDEXES AND K-INDEX THE MOST UNSTABLE AREAS ARE IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. THIS IS FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME NW.
THE HEIGHT OF WET BULB ZERO IS ABOVE 12K WHICH WOULD INDICATED ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HAIL. SO FAR ONLY HAVE RECEIVED 1 REPORT OF HAIL
AND THIS WAS BLO PEA SIZE. CAPE ONLY GOES TO AROUND 1200 OVER CNTRL
AND EAST WITH ONLY AROUND 600 IN THE NW. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH INDIANA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING WITH THE FRONT. LI DROP TO AROUND -5. CAPE REACH 1400
MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. IN THE WEST IN THE AFTN IT DROPS TO 300. WILL
GO FOR LIKELY TSTMS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING AND A
CHC IN THE EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL DROP THE POP TO A CHANCE
IN THE WEST. ON SUNDAY AFTN 850 MB TEMPS DROP AROUND 4C OVER WHAT
THEY HAVE BEEN. TEMPS HAVE BEEN GOING AT OR ABV GUIDANCE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD THINGS DOWN. WILL GO TOWARD THE HIGHER TEMP
VALUE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AFTER FROPA TO KEEP A CHANCE
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEATHER FACTOR TO CONTINUE TO WATCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND MORE OF A FLOW FROM THE N HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 70S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN KY ON WEDNESDAY
THIS WILL ALLOW INDIANA TO BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THEN AND KEEP IT THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. ONLY PROBLEMS
WILL BE SCT TSRA AND A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALLOWING SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. NO ORGANIZED TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTN...SO WILL JUST USE
VCTS. BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTOM DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM IL AFT 00Z.
A LINE OF TSRA MAY MAKE IT INTO LAF AND HUF...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO TRY AND TIME THAT FAR OUT. REMNANTS OF LINE MAY WORK INTO IND AND
BMG BEFORE 06Z...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE MUCH TOO LOW ATTM TO MENTION.
WILL USE VCTS AND CB MENTION TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY.

CIGS SHOULD DROP TO BELOW 10KFT SUNDAY WITH FRONT IN THE AREA AND
PERHAPS DYING SHRA.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CS
PUBLIC...SH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
553 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

INZ021-028-029-035-031000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-
553 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT
THE PRESENT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS OF TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WELL AS
NEXT FRIDAY. AT THE PRESENT TIME...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SEVERE
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FUTURE WEATHER TRENDS
AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ030-031-036>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-031000-
CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-
RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-
BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
JENNINGS-
553 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007 /453 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT
THE PRESENT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WELL AS
NEXT FRIDAY. AT THE PRESENT TIME...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FUTURE WEATHER TRENDS
AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

JAS