Drought in Indiana, August 21 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TERM PRECIP CHANCES...AND
THEN PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD...AND IS GRADUALLY SHRINKING
IN COVERAGE AS IT DOES SO.  SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIN...ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

DIFFICULT TO DECIDE HOW HIGH TO GO ON POPS.  MAIN ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF OUR REGION LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY...BUT AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS.  WITH JUST
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH FOR TONIGHT.  ON
TUESDAY...GFS PUSHES PRECIP OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT NAM LINGERS LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE PAH FA.

AFTER TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...KEEPING US DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK....WITH ANOTHER BRIEF HEAT WAVE POSSIBLY IN THE WORKS.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  GFS
IS NOW MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...NOT BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE PAH FA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ECMWF
IS MUCH FASTER...BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  PREFER TO STICK WITH TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TIMING OF THE
TWO MODELS.  CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME
NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THEN TAPERING OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GOING TEMPS.  IN THE NEAR TERM...USED A
MAV/MET BLEND FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND LEANED TOWARD WARMER MAV HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.  IN THE
EXTENDED...STAYED WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERALL TO LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. DUE TO ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT...THE COMPLEX IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE TAF SITES BEFORE
LOWER LEVELS COOL AND STABILIZE AFTER DARK. THEREFORE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE MAINTAINED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER
DARK...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING.
ISOLATED CELLS OVER THE WABASH VALLEY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE
REGION AROUND DUSK.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

RST/MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1014 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-211000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1014 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH
VERY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
PLACES THAT DO RECEIVE A THUNDERSTORM COULD RECEIVE WELL OVER ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. BESIDES THE HEAVY RAIN...THE
OTHER HAZARDS ARE LIGHTNING...AND STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
REAPPEAR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JDG