Moderate to heavy rainfall in the middle and upper portions of the Wabash Valley sent the river above flood stage.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Moderate to heavy rainfall in the middle and upper portions of the Wabash Valley sent the river above flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 3:10 PM CST, 8 hours 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 310 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007 MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ERODE THE CAP...RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONGLY SHEARED WIND FIELDS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. MINOR LOCATION AND TIMING ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN THE NAM WHICH IS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI...AND THE GFS WHICH IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. DEPITE THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK CONFINING THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TO OUR WESTERN HALF...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ELEVATED HAILERS EFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION SWEEPS INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE 18Z NAM INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION MAY NOT EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS MORE FORCING AND INDICATES A MORE SOLID BAND WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP POPS IN CHECK FOR NOW. WILL HAVE LIKELIES ALL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY A CHANCE IN THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE 70-80 POPS FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN KEEP THE 80 POPS FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE IN THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE STORMS WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WITH THE FRONTAL CONVECTION...INSTABILITY MAY BE PRETTY LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE AND IF THERE IS ANY INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ONCE AGAIN THE STORMS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE COLD ADVECTION WAITS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO INSERTED SOME SPRINKLES. ON SATURDAY THE MAIN UPPER CYCLONE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA...USHERING IN COLDER AIR...AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE 09Z SREF DATA DO NOT SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE POPS FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY. A NICE DRY STRETCH IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY AND BEYOND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1235 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1235 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF A MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO MURRAY KENTUCKY LINE LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES MAY REACH CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD SUNRISE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT UP TO 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE AREA THURSDAY. STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 9 AM. ANOTHER LINE OF POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND LINE OF STORMS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL CURRENTLY LOOKS GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 50 MPH...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE ENTIRE AREA BY 5 PM. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE FAST SPEED OF THE STORMS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY WEST OF A MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO MURRAY KENTUCKY LINE AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of fields and woodlands occurred along the shore of the Lower Wabash River. A few local river roads were closed. Most oil field production stopped except for pumps mounted on substructures. At Mount Carmel, where flood stage is 19 feet, the river crested at 21.93 feet on the 10th.
Minor flooding of fields and woodlands occurred along the shore of the Lower Wabash River. At New Harmony, Indiana, where flood stage is 15 feet, the river crested at 16.05 feet on the 11th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 18420, 18421.