Drought in Georgia, June 1 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
938 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SETTLES IN ACROSS
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 0130Z...TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHRA AND TSRA REMAIN OVER THE NC
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. RECENT OBS INDICATE THAT
DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND FLP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT PATCHES OF FOG OR HAZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND ALONG THE I-40 AND 77 CORRIDORS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD. I WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE LATEST TRENDS AND
REMOVE AIR QUALITY HEADLINES.

UPPER RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS STILL PROGGED TO LINGER
ACRS THE CWFA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WEAKLY FORCED APPEARANCE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...FEEL AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND NC FTLHS. WITH 700 MB FLOW PROGGED
TO COME OUT OF THE WEST THOUGH...THERE EXISTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS TO DRIFT INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDED BY WIDELY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOT MUCH SHOULD HAPPEN FRIDAY
NIGHT OTHER THAN THE DISSIPATION OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
SATURDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN GULF AND MOVES IT OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE
DAY...WHEREAS THE GFS DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FL EAST COAST
AND SE GEORGIA AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST. IT VERY WELL MAY BE THAT
NEITHER MODEL IS CORRECT...WITH THE NAM BEING THE FARTHEST WEST OF
ANY SOLUTION AND THE GFS PROBABLY BREAKING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
TOO QUICKLY. HPC SHOWS A PREFERENCE FOR THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SO AN
ATTEMPT IS MADE TO IGNORE THE GFS AND NAM. DOING SO ACTUALLY RESULTS
IN A SCENARIO NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE
FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS. EXPECT CHANGES.

FOR SUNDAY...THE ASSUMPTION IS THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER AND THUS IT IS
DISCARDED. IF ONLY WE COULD GET THE RAINFALL THAT MODEL SHOWS...BUT
AT THIS POINT...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO KEEP STORMS
SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS/WIND FAVORS THE MAV
GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REMAINS AS THE UPPER PATTERN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD BE OVER AND DONE WITH
AND DEPARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHICH SHIFTS THE TROF AXIS TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE RIPPLES OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROF AND OVERHEAD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BUT THE TIMING
IS UNKNOWN. THE BEST SHOT WILL PROBABLY BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT
AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD
STILL BE A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE UPPER
TROF LIFTS OUT WEDNESDAY LEAVING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THURSDAY...
BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MCS TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISO SHRA AND TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. LOW SCALE VFR TO MVFR
VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR KAVL...KHKY...AND
KCLT IN FOG/HZ. MOS AND RECENT CONVECTION SHOULD GIVE KHKY THE
HIGHEST CHC FOR FOG TO DEVELOP BY 10Z. FRI...CONDITIONS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE POSSIBLY FOR A AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHRA OR
TSRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN WITNESSED TODAY. A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THERE
WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON-EVENING
CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED/CSH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED/CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
904 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NED