Damaging Wind in Georgia, August 26, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
LIFT OUT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND STALL OUT OVER THE MIDLANDS OR
COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT DISSIPATES.  EXPECT ANOTHER
FRONT TO REACH OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO FIND THE SFC FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CWFA BY THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROF AND H85 FRONT. EXPECT DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SFC AND H85 FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALSO...SHOULD BE DECENT
FORCING WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE AND SOME DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING IN AS WELL. MODIFYING
12Z GSO RAOB GIVES CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEW POINTS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PW ON THE RAOB IS HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. MORNING
DCAPE VALUES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE RANGE FROM 800 TO 1000
J/KG. EVEN WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE FEATURES...WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP KEEP STORM ORGANIZATION
MINIMAL AS WELL. GOING FORECAST WITH SCT CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS GOOD. COULD STILL END UP WITH ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO NEED NUMEROUS COVERAGE SOME LOCATIONS. 12Z OBSERVED
THICKNESS VALUES GIVE FULL SUN HIGHS OF 98 DEGREES. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS THIS HIGH GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY IN
PLACE. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN RESPONSE.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY S AND CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVE...ESPECIALLY VCNTY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO KEPT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH 2 AM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70...MAINLY 60S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRIER SOLUTION AS THE NAM GIVES MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.  THE WEAK COOL
FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...OVER
THE MIDLANDS OR COASTAL PLAIN AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE POPS RETAINED IN THE FORECAST ARE MAINLY FOR THE
LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...BUT IF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST SINKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THEN THE DAY SHIFT MAY DECREASE
THOSE POPS EVEN MORE.  THE NAM SOLUTION BRINGS VORTS ALONG THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THEN MAINTAINS VORTS AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR AREA...EVEN WITH AN UPPER LOW AND A FEW VORTS NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA.  THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHIFTS THE GULF
MOISTURE TO THE WEST ONTO THE TEXAS COAST.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN LATE WEEK.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS TENDS TO
SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS OPPOSED TO THE CURRENT HPC PROJECTION.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THEN
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE WEDGE
DEVELOPING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  IF THE SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH A WELL DEFINED FRONT AND WEDGE DEVELOPMENT
THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM NW TODAY AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS.
HAVE CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN-EVE. CONVECTION
SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE AND MVFR FOG EXPECTED AGAIN MOST SITES. WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVER NW CWA...HAVE IFR FOG AT KAVL AFT 08Z.

SCT AFTN-EVE CONVECTION EXPECTED MON AND TUE BEFORE SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N FOR MID-WEEK. THEN ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED
MOVE IN THU. PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY... ESPECIALLY MTN
VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-271000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
545 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL. THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

DEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KANNAPOLIS              35.49N 80.62W
08/25/2007                   CABARRUS           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED AT
            LOCAL GOLF CLUB.

&&

JEFFT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
08/26/2007  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZE HAIL OCCURRING AT EXIT 49 ON I-26.

&&

ARK