Thunderstorms produced heavy rains that created flash flooding in northwest Florida.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MOB wrote it up.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rains that created flash flooding in northwest Florida.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 30, 3:20 AM CST, 8 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 420 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM DRY...DRY TO SOMEWHAT WETTER. PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE...BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW...MOVING MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHRA/TSRA WAS NOTED OVER SERN LOUISIANA...MOVING NORTHWARD. WITH THIS...LOOK FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE EAST. WE WILL CALL FOR A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG COASTAL AND MISSISSIPPI ZONES...WITH 30-40 PERCENT POPS OVER INTERIOR ALABAMA ZONES. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TONIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAINS OVERNIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. MAVMOS TEMP GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER WITH REGARD TO MAX TEMPS TODAY AS COMPARED TO LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN EXPECTED THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAYS WET MICROBURST RISK: UNLIKELY. /12 && .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DAMPENING MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST ON THU GIVING WAY TO LOWER PWS AND MID LEVEL FORCING TO THE CWFA THROUGH FRI MORNING. BY 18Z FRI DEEPENING LOW OVER THE LOWER GULF BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DEVELOPS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE MID GULF BY EARLY SAT WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MIX OR AVERAGE OF ALL MODELS GENERALLY LOWERING THE INTENSITY BUT KEEPING THE TRACK SIMILAR. WITH THIS PATTERN WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING MOSTLY ELEVATED INLAND. BY SUN MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS AND GULF LOW MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA GIVING WAY TO LOWER PWS OR DRIER CONDITIONS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROF WILL ONLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES OR NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED. AS A RESULT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEXMOS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PD. /32 && .MARINE...A GENERALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW BEGINNING TO COME UP WITH A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...ADVERTISING SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TOO EARLY TO BIT OFF ON THIS IN FULL AS OF NOW...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN LATTER MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY. CURRENTLY MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. IF THE LOW PRESSURE DOES DEVELOP...WILL LIKELY SEE AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA BY SATURDAY AND WENT AHEAD AND ADVERTISED THIS IN CURRENT FCST PACKAGE TO BLEND WITH WIND FCST FROM SURROUNDING FCST OFFICES. DID HOWEVER LOWER WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY AND THURSDAY. /12 && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. /32 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 79 65 83 66 / 60 30 40 20 PENSACOLA 79 68 84 68 / 60 20 30 20 DESTIN 78 69 84 70 / 50 20 20 10 EVERGREEN 79 60 84 60 / 40 20 30 20 WAYNESBORO 79 63 80 63 / 70 30 30 20 CAMDEN 79 60 84 61 / 30 20 30 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 625 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079- 301200- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE- CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND- GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL- OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE- WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX- 625 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THERE IS A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY AS THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO CREATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... NO HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OUT OF TEXAS AND TOWARD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:15 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rains in a short period of time caused several roads in the southwest part of the county to flood. The roads had to be closed for about an hour due to the high water. Estimates of 5 to 6 inches of rain fell across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 33245.