Wildfire in Florida, June 1 to 12, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

.UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS NOT FAR AWAY...WITH THE PWAT AT KEY WEST AT 2.05 INCHES WHILE
IT IS ONLY 1.35 INCHES AT MIA. LOCAL RADARS SHOW ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOW OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE KEYS. IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
MOISTEN AS WINDS CONTINUE EASTERLY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY DO SO IN
A HURRY TOWARDS DAWN AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN ESE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
COULD ALLOW FOR ISD-SCT SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE WEATHER
EXPECTATIONS BEYOND TONIGHT. /DG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS THEN SPLIT IN THE PATH OF THE LOW THIS
WEEKEND...DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM MODEL
TAKES THE LOW TO THE PANHANDLE...THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS TAKE
THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS TAKE
THE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS WEEKEND.

SO HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE PATH BETWEEN ALL OF THE MODEL AND TAKE
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA
STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. SO HAVE INCREASE THE
POPS TO DEFINITE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING TEMPS TO CHANCE CAT BY SUNDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING 3
INCHES OR HIGHER ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
ONCE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE SUNSHINE
STATE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS MOVES NORTH. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN INCREASE THE POPS TO
CHANCE CAT AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

BEYOND TONIGHT THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE. RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE SPREADING INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT AT THIS
TIME LEFT THE TERMINALS AT P6SM WITH -RA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST
OVER THE CWA WATERS. THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THEY SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THEY SWING
TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO INCREASE
FROM 6 FEET TONIGHT UP TO 8 FEET FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ATLANTIC SEAS WILL THEN SLOWLY DECREASE TO 6 FEET OR LESS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS
WILL BE 6 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.THE GULF SEAS WILL THEN FALL BELOW 6 FEET
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL PUT UP A SCA FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. SO NO PROBLEM WITH THE FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  81  75  85 / / 80 90 70
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  81  76  85 / / 90 90 70
MIAMI            76  82  76  86 / / 90 90 70
NAPLES           70  84  76  85 / / 90 90 70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168-FLZ172-
     FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
     GMZ676.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011315-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
914 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY. AS A RESULT,
SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED AT THESE BEACHES.

WAVES: GULF STREAM SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7 FEET OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OR
NORTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED ROADWAYS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE METRO AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
ALSO, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.