Lightning Strike in Florida, July 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST GULF COAST CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN
THE REGION AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALTHOUGH RAIN-COOLED AIR
TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AIRMASS RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND DUSK...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL WATERS.

OVERALL...NO THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
REASONING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROMINENT FEATURES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.  ESSENTIALLY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH
THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...PWATS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO
THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE...KEEPING COVERAGE SCATTERED AT BEST.
WILL MAINTAIN EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NO CHANGES...AS TEMPERATURES
AND POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SENDING OUTFLOWS TO THE EAST...AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COASTLINE. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON..AS THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST. SO WILL HAVE VCSH UNTIL 20Z FOR THE EAST COAST SITES AND THEN
BRING INTO VCTS UNTIL 23Z AS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WERE THE SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW COLLIDES. IF ANY OF THE CONVECTION DOES HIT ONE
OF THE TAF SITES, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST LESS THAN 30 MINUTES
AND CAN BE HANDLES WITH AMENDMENTS.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE
GONE BY LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE EAST COAST SITES. SO WILL HAVE
VCSH FROM 23Z UNTIL 2Z BEFORE ENDING THE ACTIVITY.

THE APF TAF SITE WILL ALSO SEE VCSH UNTIL 20Z BEFORE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL EAST OF THIS SITE. SO WILL CARRY VCSH UNTIL
20Z FOR APF SITE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DROPS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE FLOW INTO THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL RISE INTO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FINALLY...INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN 40-45
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  77  92 / 30 50 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  92  77  92 / 20 40 20 30
MIAMI            77  92  77  92 / 20 40 20 30
NAPLES           77  89  77  89 / 30 60 30 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-310130-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
939 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG EAST COAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY MID AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREA.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE.

HAIL: THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER
TODAY THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE.

FLOODING: DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
RESULT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL PRODUCE PONDING ON
ROADWAYS IN ANY POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FOR THE EAST METRO AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER