Tornado and Hail in Florida, July 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

.SHORT TERM (TON-WED)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...AND SHOULD DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOCUSED ON THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH
DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS FROM TAMPA TO FORT MYERS IN AREA OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE.  RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SLOWLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA EACH DAY COLLIDING
WITH THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ABOUT TAMPA TO FORT MYERS.  COULD ALSO SEE A FEW PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE EACH DAY WITH THE ADDED L/L CONVERGENCE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - MON)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FL LATE WED WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/ WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE SE STATES/ THAT SAGS INTO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY SAT
WITH THE BOUNDARY SETTLING IN OVER NORTH FL. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MON AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS
NORTH AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

EASTERLY FLOW WITH CONVECTION SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
ISOLATED MORNING AND EVENING...WITH POPS 40-20...GIVES WAY TO
CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYTIME DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE HOWEVER...40 DAYTIME AND 30 AT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD THE SW AND WEST FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH MINS 1-2
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE A SLIGHT UP TICK IN CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL
DIP MAXES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS BEGIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATE MORNING ISOLD
TSRA AND SCT SHRA THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF FMY & RSW WEAKENED BEFORE
REACHING THE AIRPORTS. GENERALLY TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. VFR WITH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 17/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  76  92 /  30  60  30  50
FMY  74  93  74  93 /  30  60  30  50
GIF  75  93  75  93 /  30  40  20  40
SRQ  74  92  74  92 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  72  93  72  93 /  20  40  20  40
SPG  78  92  78  92 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
515 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY SETTING UP A RATHER LIGHT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ELSEWHERE. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EARLY AND MOVE WELL INLAND
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST FURTHER
SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MAY MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND.
THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...GENERALLY
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR...AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES MERGE AND THEN DRIFT WESTWARD.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR
THE THUNDER THEN YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BE STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SETTING
UP A MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

PRC