Tornado in Connecticut, May 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
941 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

UPDATED
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 930 AM ONLY
YIELDING SOME SPRINKLES FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WE
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF TSTMS FROM THE MORNING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...APPROXIMATELY WEST OF ALBANY
NY AND EXTENDING WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS MTNS. THIS MATCHES
UP WELL WITH CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THAT AREA. 06Z NAM IS SLOWER
THAN GFS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN
COMPARED TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE.

UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT OKX...ALY AND INCLUDING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
ALL INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. EXPECTING 500-1000J/KG
SURFACE BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...AS SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS
ALREADY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AT 930 AM.

HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA MENTIONED ABOVE ALL INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WITH SOLAR HEATING LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME WEST WHICH WILL
LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT/LIFT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CUT BACK ON SHOWER/TSTM THREAT AND GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERALL...NICE
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY. ENJOY

ALSO...HAVE UPDATED SURF ZONE FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER RISK OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AT LOCAL BEACHES. SURF ZONE FORECAST IS
AVAILABLE ON THE TOP FRONT OF OUR WEB PAGE - WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AT 850 MB OF 11-13C...WITH CLEARING THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WHICH GOES ALONG WELL WITH MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
28/00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC HANDLING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT.  GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GGEM PER HPC
RECOMMENDATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  UPDATED THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  28/00Z GFS AND NAM ARE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THIS TREND IS
DUE TO A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS QUEBEC AT THAT
TIME.  28/00Z GGEM IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THIS FRONT
ALMOST TO THE MA/NH BORDER.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT THAT FAR...BUT HAVE AT LEAST STARTED AND UPWARD TREND TO
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS STILL HAVING ISSUES
RESOLVING TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA.  TIMING DIFFERENCES ASIDE...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LOOKS TO BE LOCKED IN A WARM...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WARM FLOW SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  WHILE THE AFTERNOON
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE FAVORED TIME...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THEM AT
THIS POINT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND RANGE OF THE FORECAST.

GENERALLY USED THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED.  THE EXCEPTIONS WERE TO LOWER DEW POINTS BELOW MOST
GUIDANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF EXPECTED GOOD
MIXING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT DID KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY GIVEN WARM FLOW AND MOS TREND TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST MASS/RHODE
ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BRING UP TO AN HOUR OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AS WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST...EXCEPT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT HYA AND
ACK. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN BRING CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RISK
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE FRI AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THEREFORE...SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES THE COAST...AND MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE EVENING
BEFORE IT CLEARS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE RISK OF
TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WIND SHOULD SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AND
MAY GUST FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING
DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

WNA WAVEWATCH III SUGGESTING THAT SEAS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FEET
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS THIS LOOKS OVERDONE...SO WE ADJUSTED THE VALUES
DOWN BY 20 PERCENT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FINE BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TUE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED THEN SOUTHWEST THU AND
FRI. ONLY CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-
RIZ001>008-291400-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-HARTFORD CT-
TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
1000 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHERN
RHODE ISLAND AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NOCERA