Wildfire in Colorado, June 17 to 22, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROF IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS IT LIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS. ASSOCIATED
RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT CLIPPED THE NORTH WEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA EASILY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAST
AS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH CORRESPONDS BETTER WITH OBSERVATIONS. WINDS
HAVE INCREASED AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UT AND CO. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING AND SLOWLY DECREASE LATE EVENING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LINGERING LATER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS
INDICATE THE TROF AXIS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL AN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA HELPING TO MODERATE MONDAY MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY NORTH WITH
MUCH LESS MODIFICATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. FLOW
REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO TODAY. ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIMITED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY WILL WARM AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH WITH 700MB TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LOW AND ONLY OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 PM MDT. AS THE
FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
          WESTERN COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES BELOW 8000 FEET.
.UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
          WEATHER ZONES 430...442...443 AND 444 BELOW 8000 FEET.

SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...MPM
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AVIATION...MPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181200-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BELOW 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. MEANWHILE...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NL