Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, August 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERN IS HOW HOT FOR TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
LATEST 19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOW CENTERED OVER
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LIES NORTH TO SOUTH OVER ROCKIES FROM WYOMING
TO NEW MEXICO. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CYCLONIC SPIN OF THE HUGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR THE SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY RESULTING IN GOOD
CAPPING AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. LOOKING AT LATEST
UPPER LEVEL MAP ANALYSIS STILL SEE 3 TO 5 DECAMETER HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALSO IN PLACE. DID NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY GFS MODEL KEEPS A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH HOT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS WELL. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE
REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE DRY AND HOT AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 100S ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ALL.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER AS ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
STILL KEEP UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING
THOSE DAYS. EXTENDED MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION PERHAPS BY NEXT THURSDAY WHICH WOULD POSSIBLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME THAT FAR OUT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH BIG CHANGE IN
TEMEPRATURES. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO THE
LOWER 100S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTE 263.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM 20Z UNTIL 04Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LAMMERS/BLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
310 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007 /410 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LAMMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
314 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

COZ090-092145-
YUMA COUNTY-
314 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

...THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YUMA...

AT 310 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YUMA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.