Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MCV THAT PRODUCED CONVECTION OVR CNTRL AND SRN AR ON SAT HAS SHIFTED
E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DVLPD. HAVE SEEN A FEW OBS DROP
AOB 1/2SM SINCE MIDNIGHT. WL MENTION PTCHY FOG IN THE ZNS THRU MID
MRNG...AND CONT TO MONITOR OBS TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
HOISTING AN ADVY LATER THIS MRNG.

MAIN UPPER LOW CONTS TO ROTATE ACRS CNTRL IOWA EARLY THIS MRNG.
MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE SYS WL SHIFT SLOLY EWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THRU MON AND WEAKEN. A POORLY DEFINED SFC FNT EXTENDED
FM THE ASSOCD SFC LOW BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THIS BNDRY IS FCST TO
WORK INTO AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART OVR TIME.

MEANWHILE...WL CONT TO MONITOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVR THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK AS IT SHIFTS SEWD. MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT
CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE SHLD STAY MAINLY S AND W OF AR
TODAY. HOWEVER...FOR CONSISTENCY WL KEEP A SLGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA
GOING FOR SRN AR THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONT ACRS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES ARE FCST TO DROP SEWD ACRS THE
FA. NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS ASSOCD WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...SO WL KEEP A DRY FCST GOING THRU THE REST OF THE PD.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/UPPER SUPPORT IN A NWLY
FLOW REGIME TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA/TSRA...SO WL CONT TO MONITOR.
MODELS CONT TO INDC THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS DROPPING SEWD ACRS MO
TUE NGT AND WED...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WL RMN TO THE N OF
THE FA.

AN UPPER RDG IS FCST TO START BLDG INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS ACRS AR. GFS
MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE THRU THE PD AND DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM
THE MODEL OUTPUT.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BUT WILL MEET UP WITH
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS AND THIS WILL IN
TURN KEEP US IN A DRY SPELL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...38
AVIATION...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
900 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL ON SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO ARKANSAS SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STATE ONCE AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS THAN IT WAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...WITH ANY SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING ISOLATED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

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