Heavy rain caused flash flooding in St Johns.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding in St Johns.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 2:25 PM MST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 225 PM MST SAT AUG 4 2007 .SYNOPSIS...WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. && .DISCUSSION... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY MOIST...BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE 500MB ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS LIMITING MOTION OF STORMS...LEADING TO SOME HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY IS INDICATED FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR WEST...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED BACK INTO THAT AREA ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DONT EXPECT ANY SENSIBLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY UNTIL A MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM COMES INTO PLAY. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS INDICATING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE FEATURE CURRENTLY MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PUSHED ACROSS ARIZONA ON MONDAY. NAM IS NOT AS OPTIMISTIC...KEEPING THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT AN UPTURN IN COVECTIVE ACTIVITY IF THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...BUT AM HOLDING OFF ON ANY LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY IN THIS SOLUTION. LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF DECREASING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS PER THESE SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. LOCALIZED AND BRIEF VSBY OF 4SM AND CIGS BLO 4KFT AGL WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS. EXPECT A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TOMORROW AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && BAK/RB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST SAT AUG 4 2007 AZZ004>018-037>040-050700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 1000 AM MST SAT AUG 4 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN CREATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST NUMEROUS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE FOR AREAS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING AREAS OF FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING A DECREASE TO THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Run off from heavy rain (over three inches) covered numerous roads in St Johns. One and a half to two feet of water covered on intersection. At least one house was flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 55137.