Heavy rain caused flash flooding across Highway 191 south of Sanders.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding across Highway 191 south of Sanders.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 3, 2:50 PM MST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 250 PM MST FRI AUG 3 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. && .DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE RESULTS OF THE WARM CAPPING LAYER SEEN IN THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. WITH PW VALUES OF 1.15 (130% OF NORMAL)...HEAVY RAIN IS THE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NORMALLY...SUCH A WARM LAYER ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS OF ONLY -3C) WOULD INHIBIT JUST ABOUT ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT WITH SUCH DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... WE ARE STILL ABLE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BIG QUESTION IS IF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...OR DIE OUT. CURRENT THINKING IS ACTIVITY IN WEST SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS DEEPEST. STREAMLINE TRAJECTORIES FOR SATURDAY SHOW DEEPENING MOISTURE IN WESTERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AS FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH DEVELOPS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS STILL MOST STABLE IN THE WEST...WHICH WOULD AGAIN INHIBIT AS MUCH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS THETA-E/PW VALUES WOULD NORMALLY INDICATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD AGAIN SEE SCATTERED OR HIGHER COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY...AIRMASS COOLS OFF ALOFT SLIGHTLY...AND MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS A WAVE MOVES SOUTH OF ARIZONA...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SOMEWHERE...ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THAT MIGHT BE. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EARLY DRYING TREND PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THEY CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY LITTLE OF IT WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON POP COVERAGE AS TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND WE CONTINUE TO TAP THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE. BY MIDWEEK...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DRYING INDICATED IN THE MID-LAYERS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH MORE DIURNAL NATURE TO ACTIVITY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST. EXPECT CEILINGS OF 4-7 KFT AGL. THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && STAUDENMAIER/BOHLIN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 900 AM MST FRI AUG 3 2007 AZZ004>018-037>040-040700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 900 AM MST FRI AUG 3 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED IN WESTERN YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CREATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL. BY MONDAY A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST DECREASING CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 186 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:43 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms caused flash flooding across Highway 191 between mile post 346 to 347 about 20 miles south-southeast of Sanders.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 55134.