Blizzard in Alaska, March 26, 2007

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1253 PM ADT MON MAR 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES WITH A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...WITH TWO MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS. ONE UPPER LOW IS SEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN ARCTIC WITH THE SECOND LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRESSURE FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO THE MSAS AND HAND ANALYSIS SFC MAP...BUT OVERALL BOTH
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING/MOVEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM. MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS MOVING ALONG THE ARCTIC AND BEAUFORT
SEA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC UPPER LOW.

.NORTH SLOPE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA
COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE INTO
BARROW BY AROUND 00Z...THEN INTO DEADHORSE BY 12Z AND THROUGH
BARTER ISLAND BY 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
AFTER FROPA (FRONTAL PASSAGE) WITH THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION.
CURRENT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT VSBY WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 MILE
WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...THUS WILL FOREGO ANY ISSUANCE OF A
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OR BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WANING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

.WEST COAST...TAIL END OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY GRAZE
NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM FAR EASTERN RUSSIA
INTO THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST TUE/WED. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA DEPARTS INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...AND WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...A TRANQUIL TUE/WED WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS INTO
THE WEST COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.INTERIOR...BENIGN WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. SOME WEAK WARMING AT
850MB INTO THURSDAY...THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
ON FRIDAY COOLING THE TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY. NO SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SO EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS/NO PRECIPITATION.
RIDGE TO FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY UNDER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BOTH MODELS HAVING 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -8C IN THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

KS MAR 07