Damaging Winds in Alabama, June 24, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
243 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED TODAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SHEAR AXIS OVER MO AND IL...STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
TEXAS...KICKED OFF SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THIS
MORNING. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THESE STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS WESTERN TN AND KY THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORTICITY
ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND AL..AND A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
MUCH OF AL AND MS. ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MID 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE NOT SEEN AS MUCH MOISTURE RETURN
LOCALLY AS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT..THUS
FAR...HAS BEEN LIMITED.

THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...REGIONS OF WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...HAVING BEEN ORPHANED BY THE MAIN WAVE PATTERN...WILL
MEANDER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONSISTENCY WITH THESE FEATURES IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. WITH THAT
SAID...THE NAM AND RUC HAVE WEAK VORT ENERGY MOVING NEAR THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE TO BETTER ORGANIZE ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST A QUICKER CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS REMAINS IN THE WEST WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT CAN BE COVERED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES WEST OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY
LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT
TRANSVERSES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...A SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE MIDWEST...AND AT LEAST APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD BE OUR ONE GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS SYSTEM SLOWER
WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUSHED
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THE EVENT IN CLOSER...STILL WONT
COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN FOR FRIDAY...AND INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20
SHOALS        70  93  70  91 /  20  20  20  20
CULLMAN       70  90  70  90 /  20  20  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  68  90  68  89 /  20  20  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  93  69  92 /  20  20  20  20
FORT PAYNE    66  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-251000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY
PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CAUTION REMAINS ADVISED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY OUTSIDE BURNING.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED TO NEAR 30 PERCENT.  WINDS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO NEAR 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ALTHOUGH GENERAL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GENERATED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FIRE DANGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPROVE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY AS A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

ALZ016-242115-
CULLMAN-
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOOD HOPE...OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF CULLMAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PHELAN.
  CULLMAN.
  SOUTH VINEMONT.
  FAIRVIEW.
  BAILEYTON.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27