Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, August 1, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ENDING HEAT
ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI ARE SLOWLY REBOUNDING FROM EARLIER
COOLING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THRU...THEN WASHED OUT
OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING. SE WI IS AT OR CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT 2 PM...WITH S CNTRL CATCHING UP. FEEL HEAT INDICES OF 75 OR
HIGHER WILL REMAIN THRU THE NIGHT...SO EXTENDED ADVISORY UNTI 7 AM.

CLOUDS FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO OUR N AND W HAVE SET
UP A SHARP SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL WI TO THE MS RVR AND THEN
SOUTH THRU ERN IA. PVA FROM VORT LOBE EXTENDING SWD FM 500MB VORT
MAX CENTERED NR MSP MOVING INTO WRN WI ATTM. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS
SOME SLACKENING TO SWLY 850 MB FLOW OVER RGN...BUT SHARP SFC THEMAL
GRADIENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON MSAS ANALYSIS ALONG WITH 1700
TO 2000 J/KG CAPE ON UN-CAPPED ON RUC FCST SNDG AT 21Z AT BLUE RIVER
EXPLAIN DEVELOPING CELLS IN WRN CWA AND CNTRL WI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MICROBURSTS WITH INVERTED V SEGMENT BELOW 800 MB. HAVE SCT TSTMS
IN NRN AND WRN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING...BUT CAP AND BETTER LIFT
WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF CWA WILL KEEP SERN
CWA DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOLLWED NAM/WRF SOLUTION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AROUND/AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SRLY LOW LVL JET STRENGTHENS AND BACKS AHEAD OF NEXT
SHRT WAVE LIFTING FROM SRN PLAINS THAT MOVES THRU OVERNIGHT. STORMS
WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME WED MORNING...THEN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN
LOW/MID LVLS INCREASES FOR LIKELY STORMS WED AFTERNOON AS FRONT
PASSES THRU CWA.

HI PRES BUILDS INTO RGN FOR THUR/FRI...WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITIES. ZONAL FLOW OVER CNTRL U.S. THRU END OF WEEK INTO
WEEKEND...WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD FROM STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN
CANADA BRINGING NEXT PCPN CHC SUND/SUNDAY NGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WED FOR WIZ046-WIZ047-
WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-
WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072.

&&

09/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-020945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 90S AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO
110.

WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY...NIGHTTIME HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE.

SUN STROKE...HEAT CRAMPS AND HEAT EXHAUSTION CAN OCCUR WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE AT THESE LEVELS. LESSEN YOUR CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING THESE ILLNESSES BY REDUCING OR ELIMINATING ANY
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 105 WEDNESDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A BREAK IN THE
HEAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-020945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

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