Wildfire in Washington, August 1 to 31, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1043 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW BUT THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FORECAST AREA UNDER LARGELY ZONAL FLOW
CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON. SATELLITE INDICATES AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLE. BOTH NAM/WRF AND GFS MOST OF THE
ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE TRANSIT WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THE REGION IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND SATELLITE INSPECTION SUGGESTS THIS SOLUTION
IS PLAUSIBLE. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRAILING COOL FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH UPPER LEVEL
COOLING PROVIDING POSSIBLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN...OTHERWISE
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY(AND LOCALLY SMOKY) SKIES WITH COOL MORNING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN AND TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
OVER TODAYS HIGHS...STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. /FUGAZZI

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE WILL EXIT NORTHERN WA AND ID TUESDAY
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING...
MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE REBOUND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  /KOCH

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR
THIS PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVERHEAD CONDUCIVE
FOR SHORTWAVE MIGRATION THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
IDAHO. MODEL RUNS SHOWING INCREASE IN 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES DURING
THIS PERIOD AND 700MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. NOT LOOKING
AT ANY LARGE SCALE EVENT WITH BOTH THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROF
OVERHEAD ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES HAVE POTENTIAL OF FIRING OFF
PERHAPS A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY PASS OVERHEAD. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE DRAWN IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER CONFINED
TO EXTREME EDGES OF NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
TROF PASSAGES ON FRIDAY STILL ON MARK AS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL
TO BRING ABOUT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH ITS PASSAGE...WITH A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE PASSING THROUGH A DAY EARLIER ON THURSDAY ALSO
HAVING POTENTIAL TO BRING ABOUT SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH ITS
PASSAGE. NOTHING REMARKABLE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXCEPT TO
SAY THEY REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WED FOR ALL AREA
TAF SITES. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE... PRIMARILY
ALONG THE NORTHERN EAST SLOPES AND IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND
HIGHLANDS. RFOX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        47  79  52  82  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
COEUR DALENE  46  79  47  81  49  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
PULLMAN        42  77  45  80  47  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       53  86  56  87  58  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       44  82  46  84  48  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
SANDPOINT      43  80  47  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
KELLOGG        46  79  49  81  49  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
MOSES LAKE     50  82  53  86  53  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      53  81  56  83  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
OMAK           47  82  54  85  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&