Hail in Utah, May 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
350 PM MDT WED MAY 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB ON INDICATING WHERE
CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH AREAS...ONE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA...
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGIONS OF SEPARATE JETS AND IN
COMBINATION WITH CONVERGENCE AT 700MB. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE AREA
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH TO FADE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE THE NEVADA
WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN UTAH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SUPPORTING THIS. THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED POPS A TAD ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF UTAH FOR TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE BOTH LESS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
TO HAVE MUCH OF A THREAT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO HAVE TWEAKED POPS
DOWN A LITTLE THERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA TO GET SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED COOLER 500 MB TEMPS COME ACROSS. THE PWS
COME UP AS WELL AND LIFTED INDICES WILL BE AROUND ZERO.

FRIDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE A WET DAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH
FRONT AND INTO THE WEST DESERT DUE TO THE 700 MB CIRCULATION
FORECAST BY THE GFS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF FORECAST
LOCATIONS OF THE WHERE THIS 700 MB CIRCULATION WILL BE HAVE JUST
BUMPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. HOWEVER...IF THE PARALLEL NAM IS CORRECT
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY CIRCULATION BUT INSTEAD A TROUGH AXIS THAT
WOULD BE THROUGH THE NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY 9AM FRIDAY. THIS
WOULD DEFINITELY CHANGE THE PROSPECT OF SHOWERS LASTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THEN REBOUND TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION.
DURING THIS BUILDING OF THE RIDGE A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY WEATHER.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THE STRONG TROUGH FOR
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS HAS COMPLETELY WENT AWAY FROM THE
TROUGH IDEA WHILE THE EC IS WEAKER BUT STILL HOLDS ONTO A WEAKER
TROUGH SCENARIO BUT RATHER THAN MOVING INTO FROM THE WEST IT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THE
TWO. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR DAYS 6
AND 7.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AT KSLC. THERE IS 40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 7000 FEET BETWEEN 02Z
AND 08Z TONIGHT...AS STRONGER SHOWERS THAT ARE DEVELOPING OUT IN
EASTERN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...HALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
703 PM MDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             DUCHESNE                40.18N 110.39W
05/03/2006  M1.00 INCH       DUCHESNE           UT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ATARDY