Hail in Utah, August 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1130 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANT SURFACE FRONT LIES ACROSS THE DUGWAY GROUNDS
AND EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SALT LAKE VALLEY JUST SOUTH
OF KSLC. LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. COOL STABLE AIR NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A MOSTLY QUIET DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION...STARTING OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THEN DRIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE FLOW.

DYNAMICS GET MUCH BETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. 40-50KTS OF 700-300MB SHEAR PRESENT
FROM 00-06Z. HOWEVER...THE BEST CAPE EAST FROM THE WASATCH BACK
VALLEYS TO THE CO BORDER. NOT ONLY THAT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IS MUCH MORE STABLE THIS MORNING...AND SHOULDNT
RIPEN ALL THAT MUCH TODAY WITH THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. STILL AM NOT
RULING OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD EVENT.

STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CAPE.

NOT MUCH FOCUS BEYOND TODAY...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE 12Z
RUNS IS THAT A CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT COULD SUPPORT HAIL-PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAX HEATING TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD REACH CRITICAL SPEEDS.
DEWPOINTS HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. HUMIDITIES SHOULD REACH NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT COVERAGE OF CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS MAY BE
MARGINAL. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT ERRATIC WINDS THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE FIELD. FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY...BUT WILL BE
EASILY TAINTED BY RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
FIELD WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AFTER 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10PM MDT FOR FIRE WX ZONES 437 AND 439.
WY...NONE.

&&

SMITH/WILENSKY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
900 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

UTZ001>012-015-WYZ021-261200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST WYOMING-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-
80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
900 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WEST CENTRAL UTAH...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD THIS COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL
...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN UTAH ON SATURDAY
AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WHEN THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
INCREASE OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

UTZ013-014-016>021-261200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
900 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH
AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UTAH. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH TODAY. REFER TO FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN UTAH ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONLY SHOWERS LINGERING
IN FAR EASTERN AREAS. A WARMING TREND WILL START MONDAY AND RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DAILY THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TARDY