Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, September 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 PM CDT TUE SEP 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MINOR
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX EMBEDDED IN THE N/NW FLOW
ALOFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHICH WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH 00Z.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE GIVEN WAY TO INCREASED SOLAR
HEATING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN REALIZED AND ABUNDANT CUMULUS FIELD
EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES PER 20Z SPC PLOT REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 1500J/KG LEVEL
WITH 0 TO 3KM LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEARING 7 TO 7.5 C/KM.
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH ABOVE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND HAVE EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO ENCOMPASS LUBBOCK.

THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER 00Z FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DRYING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGING ONCE AGAIN AS SOIL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH. WILL FORECAST LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
OVER STONEWALL COUNTY. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING OVER ALL
SECTIONS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KW

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...ALTHOUGH WITH MANY DIFFERENCES...ARE IN
SOMEWHAT OF AN AGREEMENT WITH REX TYPE BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING EASTARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS ON HANDLING
TO STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA. ECMWF AND UKMET MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEY PLACE THE LOW OVER MONTANA
WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
WITH UNCERTAINTY OF MODELS WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE
BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY AROUND
NOON ON SATURDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL THUS CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY MONDAY AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT KLBB INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY FROM SOLAR HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  77  55  79 /  20  30  30  30
TULIA         55  80  55  80 /  20  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     58  78  58  81 /  20  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     59  79  58  81 /  10  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       58  79  58  81 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    60  81  58  82 /  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     59  82  60  83 /   0  10  20  20
SPUR          59  81  59  82 /  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     60  81  60  85 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 5 2006

TXZ021>044-061100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
558 AM CDT TUE SEP 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER LOCALES
NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.