Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT MADE A PRETTY GOOD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
AND IS LOCATED PRETTY MUCH FROM MULESHOE TO CHILDRESS. COOL AIR HAS
BROUGHT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL INHIBIT SEVERE CONVECTION
ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND. STILL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD
HELP TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FRIDAY THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE...MOISTURE AND THE
DISTURBANCE. THEN BRIEF RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO
THE SUSTAINED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS DOWN WITH
LESS DIURNAL CHANGE THANKS TO THE LOW CLOUDS.

WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND BRING ABOUT DRIER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO RISE SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT
GET TOO FAR ABOVE CLIMO. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT...IF NOT BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  60  46  61 /  50  50  30  40
BEAVER OK                  48  61  45  66 /  60  60  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              42  56  42  58 /  40  40  40  50
BORGER TX                  48  57  45  63 /  60  60  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  63  49  65 /  50  50  30  40
CANYON TX                  50  64  48  62 /  50  50  30  40
CLARENDON TX               51  62  47  64 /  60  60  30  40
DALHART TX                 47  59  46  61 /  40  40  40  40
GUYMON OK                  47  58  44  62 /  50  50  40  50
HEREFORD TX                49  69  47  65 /  40  40  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                49  59  45  65 /  60  60  40  50
PAMPA TX                   47  56  44  62 /  60  60  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  62  48  64 /  70  70  40  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  63  49  66 /  70  70  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/10

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-041100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
318 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A DURHAM OKLAHOMA TO
HEDLEY LINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHWEST OF A TEXLINE TO WELLINGTON LINE...
AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF A NARA
VISA NEW MEXICO TO SHAMROCK LINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SCHNEIDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
823 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

TXZ019-040230-
DONLEY TX-
823 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN DONLEY COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENBELT LAKE
AT 823 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN BRISCOE AND HALL COUNTIES...AND ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO DONLEY COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
901 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

TXZ014-040245-
GRAY TX-
901 PM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN GRAY COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF ALANREED AT 901 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ALANREED AND MCLEAN ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.