Tornado and Flash Flood in Texas, May 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1007 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.UPDATE...A VERY UNSTABLE BUT VERY STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL
INHIBIT TSRA DVLPMNT AND IT WILL TAKE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BDRY FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DVLP. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...IF
TSRAS DO DVLP...THEY WILL LIKELY GO SVR. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE 20-30 POPS. TODAYS FCSTD WINDS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO REMOVE MORNING
WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 431 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006)

SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT DRYLINE/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE INLAND
SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE
85H...EVIDENT ON 00Z CRP SOUNDING...WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW 85H TEMPS AROUND 24 DEGREES C
HOLDING OVER THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
CAP WILL ALLOW AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL BEND TO BECOME STRONGLY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES LIKELY IN THE RANGE FROM 3500 TO 4500
J/KG. SURFACE TO 85H CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
FROM 21Z UNTIL 03Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL
BEND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIP THREAT ENDING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT
AND HAZE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MARINE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE TROUGH/DRYLINE
MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
DOWN FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT STORMS THAT DEVELOP
NEAR THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE STRONG COLD FRONT
BLASTS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WILL ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT TO MENTION ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THEN STRONG WINDSHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL OFF BY THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WESTERN SITES AT LRD AND COT WHERE VFR CONDS WILL
EXIST. CEILINGS FROM 1000-1500 FT AND 3-5SM VSBY IN BR/HZ
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL BEND THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ALICE TO BEEVILLE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING
UNTIL AROUND 03Z OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
BEND. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEVERE STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR/CLEARING
SKIES INVADING FROM THE NORTH.

LONG-TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOLER/DRYER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY TO DROP TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWFA AND THE LOW 60S ELSEWHERE...WITH LAREDO AS THE EXCEPTION WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULFMEX. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THINGS BECOME INTERESTING SUNDAY.
THE LATEST GFS RUN PROGS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
MIDDAY SUNDAY WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF SAID MODEL WAS
APPROXIMATELY 30HRS SLOWER WITH THE FROPA. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO GFS RUNS AND GIVE MORE
CREEDENCE TO THE ECM/CANADIAN SOLNS AND INDICATE THE FROPA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS BOUNDARY MAY STALL
NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD IT PASS THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD COOL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR CLIMO FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...SHORT-TERM
MW/98...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
548 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-111100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
548 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...GENERALLY TO
THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM THREE RIVERS TO PREMONT. A DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE COASTAL BEND.

TMT/TM