Hail in Texas, March 29, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SCT SHWRS OCCURRING ACROSS THE S ZONES. AN AREA OF SHWRS AND
TSTMS IS ALSO MOVING NE INTO EXT NW AREAS OF SE TX. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING GENERATED BY AN APPROACHING SHRT WV. A STRONGER SHRT WV
PASSED S OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOW AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS LEFT OVER
FROM THE STABILIZATION FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS MCS...BELIEVE IT
WILL BE OVERCOME WITH SOME HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY. THEREFORE...LEFT THE 60 POPS IN
PLACE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE THE COVERAGE
THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY (100%)...BUT MORE AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN THAN
WILL NOT. COULD SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 310 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006)

DISCUSSION...
MESO-HIGH FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION STILL OVER CWFA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...PSEUDO FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG COAST SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE BACK RAPIDLY NORTH TODAY AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH REGION. CONVECTION NOW ACTIVE
OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION INDICATED OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. GFS INDICATE TWO DISTINCT VORT LOBES AT 500
MB ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IT
APPEARS THAT CURRENT TRACK OF SOUTHERN CLUSTER WILL START TO
AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED
ALONG AND NEAR WEAKENING MESO HIGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
NORTH. WITH PWATS PROGGED TO APPROACH 1.6 INCHES WE SHALL MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. THIS PROBABLY HAS A
HIGHER PROBABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MESO-HIGH BREAKING DOWN
..CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY
THEN. WE ANTICIPATE AVERAGE RAINFALL 1/2 TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE. HWOHGX WILL BE UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING EAST OF CWFA
TONIGHT...EXPECT WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN. PW VALUES WILL LOWER TO
NEAR 1.2 INCHES AND SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO THIS VALUE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL RAPIDLY MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A DRY
LINE ACROSS THAT REGION BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT OUR CWFA. COLD FRONT
INDICATED BY GFS TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND THEN STALL.
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE WEST COAST. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING. 37

MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN CAUTION FLAGS THROUGH NOON FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS.
BUOY 42019 HAS HAD 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
TOTALLY SURE THEYLL STAY UP THIS MORNING...BUT PLAYED IT SAFE BY
KEEPING THE CAUTION UP. NO REAL BIG MARINE PROBLEMS TODAY EXCEPT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OFF
THE COAST. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE OR WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN. AT 08Z...
COMPLEX MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD CRPS COASTAL WATERS LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE COMPLEX MOVING INTO FWDS CWA
FROM THE WEST WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. IF WE DO SEE SOMETHING
DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER OUR CWA...CONDITIONS COULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THAN ARE CURRENTLY
BEING PREDICTED. WE WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THIS MORNING. 42

AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...
AND PROBABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES FROM GOING MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT THEY ARE AT
08Z (ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL COUNTY LOCATIONS UNDER 2 MILES). SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE...BUT IFR/MVFR CLOUDS COULD
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 18Z. NOT REALLY SURE WHEN OR WHERE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SO WILL PROBABLY GO
WITH A PROB30 TSRA WITH MVFR CLOUDS AT OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MIGHT MENTION SOME FOG 06Z-12Z...BUT WHAT WE END UP
GETTING WILL DEPEND A LOT ON WHAT WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON. AS WITH
MARINE...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THIS MORNING. 42

FIRE WEATHER...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH TODAY DUE TO WET GROUNDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF
MORE RAIN. 42

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
358 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN A
HALF AND ONE INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.