Hail in Texas, March 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH #95 IN EFFECT TIL 8AM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
VAL VERDE, EDWARDS, KERR, GILLESPIE, BLANCO, LLANO AND BURNET.

STRONG VORT LOBE WHIPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL
REACH THE PECOS REGION AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. WILL EXPECT CLOUD
TOP COOLING TO RESPOND TO THIS AROUND 5 OR 6 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL IN A VERY UNSTABLE STATE, AND CONDITIONS WILL DESTABILIZE
MORE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE 00Z SOUNDINGS TONIGHT SHOW 2000 J/KG CAPES ALREADY IN PLACE.
NAM MODEL HAS CAPES IN THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE TODAY AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR RESULTS. GFS INDICATING A 80KT
SPEED MAX APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR SUNSET. ALSO THE
250MB JET AXIS IS PROGGED TO INTERSECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. SO EXPECT BOW ECHOES AND VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT 35 KT.

VERY DRY WEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KT AT 850MB WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 KTS THROUGH NOON.
THIS WILL RECREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT MASSIVE AIRMASS DRAPES ACROSS OF THE U.S.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.,
WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGHS CONTROL OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  60  79  42 /  60  90  20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  56  78  40 /  60  90  20   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  59  83  48 /  50  60  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  59  81  45 /  50  90  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA... BANDERA... BASTROP... BEXAR...
BLANCO... BURNET... CALDWELL... COMAL... DE WITT... DIMMIT...
EDWARDS... FAYETTE... FRIO... GILLESPIE... GONZALES... GUADALUPE...
HAYS... KARNES... KENDALL... KERR... KINNEY... LAVACA... LEE...
LLANO... MAVERICK... MEDINA... REAL... TRAVIS... UVALDE... VAL
VERDE... WILLIAMSON... WILSON... AND ZAVALA.

&&

06/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-201115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
501 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.