Wildfire in Texas, March 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
519 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.UPDATE...
FINISHED UP THE EXTENDED PACKAGE AFTER THE 4 AM RELEASE. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 359 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006)

DISCUSSION...
STRONG JET STREAM WILL BE ORIENTATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TODAY...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS WILL NECESSITATE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALSO...BOATERS WILL
NEED TO TAKE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON
MONDAY. COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL LOWER READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NEGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS QUICKLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS EMERGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LATER PASSAGE...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HEIGHTEN THE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE THE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK...AND USHER IN THE WARM AIR
NORTH AGAIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...AND TEXAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...AND TEXAS.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...AND
     WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     AND SHERMAN.

&&

24/08

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
830 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-121900-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
830 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY GRASSES TO
PRODUCE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYSIDE...TO
LEFORS...TO CANADIAN...THROUGH 8 PM AS WELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.  THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. ALSO...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TODAY
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...LOCAL
AUTHORITIES AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS...AS THE THREAT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

COCKRELL