Wildfire in Texas, July 3 to 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
250 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PANHANDLES REMAIN IN BETWEEN UPPER LOW NEAR SAN ANGLO TEXAS AND
UPPER HIGH NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. COLD FRONT SLICES THE NORTHWEST
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IT LIES FROM BETWEEN GCK AND DDC TO NEAR EHA
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAO. WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF UPPER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OLDHAM AND WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN
THE SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND IT WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE THINK THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HEDGED TOWARD
THE NAM/S TIMING OF THE FRONT.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CLOUDS IN MOST OF THE DAY...SO HAVE
GONE TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS AND WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER LOW DOWN-STATE AND HOW THE UPPER RIDGE
EVOLVES.  HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW AS IT WILL DEPEND ON ANY LITTLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MAKE IT
THROUGH THE RIDGE ON WHETHER WE GET STORMS OR NOT.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST AS IT
APPEARS THAT THE NAM MODEL HOLDS ON TO HIGHER POPS TOO LONG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  88  62  78 /  10  60  60  50
BEAVER OK                  68  90  61  83 /  30  60  60  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  86  60  72 /  40  50  50  30
BORGER TX                  70  90  65  80 /  20  60  60  40
BOYS RANCH TX              69  91  64  79 /  20  60  60  50
CANYON TX                  66  88  62  82 /  10  50  50  50
CLARENDON TX               65  91  65  78 /  10  60  60  50
DALHART TX                 65  87  62  77 /  40  50  50  40
GUYMON OK                  67  89  62  83 /  30  60  60  30
HEREFORD TX                65  88  62  82 /  20  50  50  50
LIPSCOMB TX                66  92  63  84 /  20  70  70  30
PAMPA TX                   66  90  65  78 /  20  60  60  40
SHAMROCK TX                66  93  68  83 /  20  60  60  40
WELLINGTON TX              68  94  69  85 /  20  60  60  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/15

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-041100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT TO ALL OF OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND ALL OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN