Flash Flooding in Texas, July 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.AVIATION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS UNFOLDING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A
VARIABLE CEILING FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR PERIODICALLY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT FOR AUS AND
SAT AERODROMES. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD SEE
MORE VFR CONDITIONS, BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL
LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS BRIEFLY. E/SE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT,
EXCEPT NEAR SOME OF THE STRONGER DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 414 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006)

DISCUSSION...
WET FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE POPS START TO DROP OFF TO
NEAR CLIMO VALUES. WELCOMED RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY
RELIEF TO ARES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HIT HARD BY A DROUGHT THAT
HAS BEEN GOING FOR A YEAR AND A HALF.

AT 00Z...PWATS WERE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...ABOVE NORMAL BUT
STILL LESS THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE. HOWEVER...THAT
LOOKS TO BE CHANGING WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HEADED
NORTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS SEEN ON BOTH THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM(WRF) SOLUTIONS SHOW PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOVE TWO INCHES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY
AND UP TO AN IMPRESSIVE 2.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES BY MID DAY MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED AT SOME POINT...BUT WILL HOLD-OFF FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR
SOME 12Z DATA TO DROP IN LATER THIS MORNING. IF TODAYS ROUND OF
CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE SAME DIURNAL TREND AS YESTERDAYS...WE
WONT NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MONDAY.

THE 500MB CIRCULATION OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO HANG
AROUND OUR AREA AND INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OUR LOW GETS CAUGHT-UP IN THE EASTERLIES. THE TREND
TOWARD CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS AFTER WEDNESDAY LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. OUR NUMBERS ARE ONCE AGAIN
VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS MOS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER SCENARIO.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED GOING
INTO THE 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
545 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE OVER TEXAS.
THE FOCUS FOR THESE HEAVY RAINS STRETCH ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF
SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS.

SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER SCALE WEATHER
FEATURES COULD DEVELOP IN THIS RICH TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT TO
FURTHER ENHANCE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN. IF THIS HAPPENS..A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.