Hail in Texas, April 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
450 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO APPROACH AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE INVOF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AIRPORTS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF THE KDFW TRACON.  OTHERWISE...CI
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AC/AS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF DRYLINE.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
VEERING FROM SSW-W-N...AS DRYLINE PASSAGE IS FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
AROUND MIDNIGHT DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FARTHER INTO THE STRONGLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE STORMS DIED JUST IN TIME TO
AVOID THE SWITCHOVER TO DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME. (THERE IS NO
METEOROLOGICAL CONNECTION THERE.) A DRYLINE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AS OF 09Z. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS BY
MIDDAY AND THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WE WILL
STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE/FRONT. IF STORMS FORM...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES FOR REST OF THE WEEK DO NOT LOOK
GOOD...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE ANY BENEFIT FOR US. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  58  78  52 /  20  10   0   0
WACO, TX              86  59  83  53 /  20  10  10   0
PARIS, TX             82  55  76  50 /  20  10  10   0
DENTON, TX            84  55  77  50 /  10  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  56  76  52 /  20  10  10   0
DALLAS, TX            83  58  78  53 /  20  10  10   0
TERRELL, TX           82  60  77  53 /  20  10  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         84  61  80  56 /  20  10  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            85  59  83  56 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

65/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031015-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
501 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN...TO FORT
WORTH AND LAMPASAS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION INDEED DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

65/DD