Lightning Strike in Pennsylvania, April 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
BY 9:30 PM, THE COLD FRONT HAD DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE POCONO REGION,
WHERE SOME CONVECTION WAS RIDING EASTWARD ALONG IT.  THERE WAS SOME
SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN ALBRIGHTSVILLE IN CARBON COUNTY AND IN
JACKSON TOWNSHIP IN MONROE COUNTY.  WEVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND IN OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS MARYLAND.  IN BOTH CASES, THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/RAIN ACTIVITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  WEVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO
RAISE TEMPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEAR TERM.

IN THE MARINE FORECAST, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS DISCONTINUED
FOR DELAWARE BAY AS THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED.  THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR SEAS OVERNIGHT
AND FOR INCREASING WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.352 PM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NOW
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SRN HALF. NE PHILLY CAME IN WITH A
GUST TO 28 MPH LAST HOUR.

THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING AND EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WAS TAKING THE FAST TRACK OFF THE COAST. AS A RULE OF
THUMB, WE COMMONLY USE ABOUT A 6 HOURS TIME FRAME FROM WHEN
PRECIPITATION ENTERS INTO WESTERN PA AND EXITS INTO NJ. BASED ON THE
RADAR LOOP, THE INITIAL LIGHT PRECIP ENTERED AND EXITED PA IN ABOUT
3 TO 3 1/2 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. QUITE IMPRESSIVE

BASED ON TEMPERATURES, WIND GUSTS, AND MSAS LIS, THE WARM FRONT IS
PROBABLY CUTTING ACROSS SE PA, AND CENTRAL NJ. WITH SKIES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FURTHER NORTH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FROPA, THE
WARM FRONT WILL ONLY INCH NORTH AT BEST AND MOST LIKELY NOT EVEN
EXIT OUT OF OUR CWA. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, WE ARE STARTING TO
THINGS DESTABILIZE. THE MENTION OF EVENING THUNDER WAS EXPANDED
ACROSS THE CWA TO INCLUDE MORE OF EASTERN PA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NJ.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OUT OF HERE, THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING WILL FEATURE JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WAVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO EXIT OUT OF OUR CWA LATER RATHER THAN SOONER. WHILE THE
NORTHERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
THE SOUTH WILL STAY ENTRENCHED IN CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, WEVE SIDED WITH THE GFS STAT GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES STEADY TOMORROW COMING OFF THE MORNING LOWS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT LAST.
THEY WILL EXPERIENCE A TEMPERATURES DROP AS THE DAYS PROGRESSES.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH. NOT THE BEST OF APRIL DAYS USING
THE GFS SOLUTIONS, WE COULDNT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN BEFORE ENDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ROLES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN OR
JUST THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED, TODAY WE ARE PUTTING MORE WEIGHT IN
THE 06Z GFS. THE 06Z/07 GFS RUN WAS MORE LIKE THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IN
PUSHING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THAN THE 00Z/07 GFS RUN, AND BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT BECOMES
ALMOST A DAY FASTER WITH SHORTWAVE TRAFFIC ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, WE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THE SAID SHORT
WAVE, OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE 20% OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT LATER THIS EVENING FOR A
WHILE NOW THAT THE INITIAL RAIN SHOT HAS ENDED AND SOME DRYING
OCCURS.  THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
HOWEVER, THEY WILL NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CBS
FOR NOW ALONG WITH SHOWERS.  CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ONCE AGAIN COME
DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
RAIN AND MIST/FOG PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD NORTHERN TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAY INTO THIS EVENING. THERE
ARE STILL SOME STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND WE ARE NOT
TOTALLY CONFIDENT SOME WILL NOT MIX DOWN. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE SCA
FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TIME
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT SCA CONDITIONS ARE MET, HOWEVER, WE WILL
LET LATER FORECASTS DECIDE ON THIS BECAUSE ITS NOT VERY CERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.  AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND
KEEP WINDS AND SEAS DOWN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ450>455 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO/HPC
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/GIGI
MARINE...ROBERTSON/GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-
007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-080830-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
429 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.