Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, September 9, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1113 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR EVENING WORDING. STRONG STORMS ARE JUST ENTERING
BEAVER COUNTY OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ANOTHER WAVE MAY
TRIGGER STORMS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006)

DISCUSSION...
CONFOUNDING DAY 1 FORECASTS CONTINUE TODAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO. LIFT ON FRINGES OF UPPER WAVE SHOULD HELP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOUTH ALONG SFC TROF INTO NORTHERN HALF OF
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS A LOT LOWER IN DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SOUTH...GIVEN MORE NORTHERLY LOCATION OF BEST LIFT AND CLOUD COVER
HAVING INHIBITED HEATING LONGER...AND HAVE THEREFORE TAILORED HIGHEST
POPS IN NORTHERN HALF...WHERE STORM MOTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
AREAS TO SEE RAINFALL. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS TONIGHT
PERHAPS IN KANSAS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...LIKELY A
LITTLE AHEAD OF THE TIMING SHOWN IN THE NAM...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS TIMING...DESPITE TOO RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN
WAVE...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...ALONG WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DECENT HEATING...CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY BE
ENHANCED...AND SO 30 PERCENT POPS SEEMED REASONABLE.

UPSLOPE SFC WINDS SEEN IN OBS ALL THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO MANIFEST THEMSELVES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE MIDLEVEL SHEAR ZONE...WHICH
LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE
THEREFORE OTHERWISE REMOVED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

LOWLEVEL DRYING AND CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH SETTLING SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD APPEAR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS
LEE TROF BEGINS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY. LOWLEVEL JET HELPS TO
RESTORE A FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. DEEPENING LEE TROF THURSDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE NOT ONLY A
BREEZY AND WARM DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT ALSO A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE IN
THE EASTERN HALF GIVEN SEVERAL GFS RUNS DEPICTING THIS FEATURE. SFC
TROF SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH EASTERN ZONES SUBJECT TO SIMILAR
STORM CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NOT MUCH DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PACKAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE
MAINTAINED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MEXMOS NUMBERS WERE REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED
AND WERE ACCEPTED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/21

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
323 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-101100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
323 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

GOEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
607 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             4 NW AMARILLO           35.24N 101.87W
09/09/2006  M0.88 INCH       POTTER             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1059 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

OKZ003-100445-
BEAVER OK-
1059 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN BEAVER COUNTY...

AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLORIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN BEAVER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF BEAVER...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JOHNSON