Damaging Wind in Ohio, July 2, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THIS ZONAL FLOW, AS FRONT PUSHES SWD DURING THE FIRST PERIOD, WE
FACE THE TYPICAL UNCERTAIN SVR WX PATTERN. ETA/NAM SHOWS GREATER
CAPE S, BUT BETTER MOIST FLUX N EARLY THIS AFTN. BY 21Z, MOIST FLUX
INCRESES NR MGW, WHERE CAPE IS 2400. AND BY 00Z, THINGS COULD BE
DEVELOPING CNTRL AND SRN OH, WHERE FLUX GOES UP AND CAPE REACHES A
SMALL AREA OF 4500. CAPE DROPS BY 03Z, BUT FLUXING CONTINUES FROM
HLG SWD. WILL TRY TO MAXIMIZE POPS IN THAT REGION AT THAT TIME,
CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORS. THINGS DROP S OF CWA BY 09Z MON. LIFTED
INDEX -4 TO -5 DURING THE 1ST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ALONG THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EXPECTED TO
WANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH IN UPPER FLOW. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
TUESDAY EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THEN CHANCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...
HARD TO TIME EXACT TIMING OF AFTN/EVE TSTMS, BUT TRIED TO FOLLOW
UPPER VORT MAX AND MOIST FLUXES ARE MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM. THUNDER
SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 3 HRS, FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING RAIN, THEN
SOME CLEARING, AND A BIT OF DAWN FOG. MON AFT 15Z, SOME SCT CU BTWN
3 AND 5 THSD FT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-030715-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
FROM HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
STALLED FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH
TUESDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BYESVILLE               39.97N 81.54W
07/02/2006                   GUERNSEY           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON CAR. SEVERAL OTHERS TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRYOPOLIS             40.09N 79.75W
07/02/2006                   FAYETTE            PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

TPARRISH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JEANNETTE               40.33N 79.61W
07/02/2006                   WESTMORELAND       PA   PUBLIC

            TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

TPARRISH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             DONEGAL                 40.11N 79.38W
07/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       WESTMORELAND       PA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TPARRISH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             MOUNT PLEASANT          40.15N 79.54W
07/02/2006  U0.75 INCH       WESTMORELAND       PA   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            308 PM 07/02/2006 AND 323 PM 07/02/2006

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

MDZ001-WVZ012-021>023-041-022145-
GARRETT-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...
NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...
TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH 5 PM.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.