Dust Devil in North Carolina, August 4, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINES OF SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER KY AND TN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH
THE NC/TN LINE BY 21Z. I EXPECTED THE CONVECTION WILL BREAK APART
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT SCT ACTIVITY SHOULD SURVIVE TO THE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY SECTION OF SHRA AND TSRA
HAS STARTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC. THE MIDLAND
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z
AND 0Z THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A FEW SVR WIND EVENTS. LARGE HAIL IN NOT
FAVORED DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND HIGH FRZ LEVELS.

INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY POOL ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A H5 VORT WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COVERAGE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL ADVERTISE
COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THE HIGH CHC COVERAGE INDICATED BY MOS.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
RETROGRADES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW DEEP OMEGA REMAINING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...POPS WILL BE KEPT
IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE
AREA...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AROUND THE CLOCK...WITH
RELATIVE LULLS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUD COVER REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH NEAR
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE SOME DEGREE OF EAST COAST
TROUGHING AT THE UPPER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY... PRECEDED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ACTING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...WITH A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE
FIRST 12 HRS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN THE HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY MAX OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. MTN SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE BY 23Z AS INITIAL
BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST. CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT MAY
LINGER UNTIL 6Z. BASED ON THIS MORNING/S OBS...I INCLUDED A MENTION
OF FOG AT KAND AND KAVL. AFTER 13Z...TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ071-082 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ006>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/NED
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW HIGH SHOALS        35.39N 81.21W
08/03/2006                   GASTON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THE COUNTY EMERGENCY DIRECTOR REPORTED SEVERAL TREES WERE
            BLOWN DOWN AT A GOLF COURSE OFF CHERRY STREET NEAR HIGH
            SHOALS. THE STORM WIND ALSO RIPPED OFF A TIN ROOF OF A
            BUILDING AT THE GOLF COURSE AS WELL AS A FEW SHINGLES
            FROM NEARBY HOUSES.

0334 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW RUTHERFORDTON      35.33N 82.00W
08/03/2006                   RUTHERFORD         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THE COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTER REPORTED A TREE HAD
            FALLEN ON UNION ROAD. ALSO RECEIVED A PUBLIC REPORT OF AN
            AVERAGE SIZED TREE WAS FOUND ON PLEASANT HILL ROAD ABOUT
            HALF WAY BETWEEN UNION ROAD AND HIGHWAY 108. THESE TWO
            TREES FELL AS THE STORM PASSED AND WERE WITHIN ABOUT 2
            MILES OF EACH OTHER.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-042115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1113 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...CREATING A
FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE SOURCES OF LIFT TO
FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 IN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
ALSO...A FEW STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS COULD BECOME RATHER STRONG.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-042115-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-MADISON-MITCHELL-NORTHERN
JACKSON-SWAIN-YANCEY-
342 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FLATWOOD TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST AT AROUND
10 MPH AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ADJACENT TO
THE TENNESSEE BORDER BETWEEN 4 PM AND 530 PM. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
UNSTABLE...AND ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TAPOCO BY 510 PM EDT.
  BEECH MOUNTAIN BY 520 PM EDT.
  HOT SPRINGS BY 515 PM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ505-506-508-042045-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
348 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 347 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLENWOOD...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLENWOOD BY 400 PM EDT.
  THERMAL CITY BY 435 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44