Hail in North Carolina, April 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE ACTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONTAINED IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE ARRAY OF CELLS
LINED UP ALONG A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AS IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WELL THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD UP AS IT MOVES
INTO LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE AIR. OF NOTE IS THE NEW DAY1 OUTLOOK
WHICH KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST AFTER 12Z. EXPECT
A NUMBER OF UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD
BE AROUND THE TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH EXPIRATION AROUND 5 AM.

THE MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER FORCING BUT SOMEWHAT POOR INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS CYCLE. THE NAM APPEARS
TO HANG ONTO PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TOO LONG INTO THE
EVENING...SO THE GFS WAS FAVORED. WILL KEEP A CATEGORICAL POP
ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT EVENTUAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE DAY...SO POP WAS KEPT FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE WELL TO OUR EAST
IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS TRANQUIL IN COMPARISON AS
UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE AND THEY WERE RELATIVELY
MINOR...MAINLY A NUDGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER TOWARD THE NEW MAV
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS IT RIDGES
DOWN TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED.ISLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE
CARRIED WED EVE THRU THU AFTN FOR MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE TO ABOVE AVG FOR LATTER PART
OF WEEK. DECIDED TO ADD THE NEW DAY 7 TO THE GRIDS NOW IN CASE DAY
SHIFT IS BUSY LATER THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ADVERTISED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS PACKAGE
WITH THE APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS
ADVERTISED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH BEST TIME FOR TSRA PROGD
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z FOR KAVL...AND 12Z TO 16Z AT KGSP/KAND/KCLT.
CONVECTION MAY BE AS LATE AS 13Z ARRIVING AT KCLT. WE ADVERTISED
SOMEWHAT IMPROVED VISIBILITIES BUT WITH STILL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ADVERTISE THUNDER CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME...THEY COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME AS LONG AS THE COLD FRONT
HAS YET TO PASS THE AREA. A CB WAS INCLUDED WITH CLOUD GROUP AT
KCLT AS LATE AS 22Z. SURFACE WIND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STIFF FROM
THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES A TURN OF
THE SURFACE WIND TO NORTHWEST AT KAVL AND TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WIND AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES...WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AGAIN AS 85H
MOISTURE MAX PASSES OVER THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ADVERTISED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE
UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-080830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
430 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
CAESPSGSP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTERS SHOULD MAKE SURE THAT
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE AWARE OF THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-080500-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1018 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 1 AM...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL SEND
GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH INTO THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ALSO...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF
CHATTANOOGA LATE THIS EVENING WILL BRUSH WESTERN GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES BEFORE 1 AM. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-080600-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1130 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE GRADUALLY INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 2 AM...

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIP SLOWLY INTO
THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 2 AM. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN OF UP TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR...AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH.
SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COULD CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1138 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

NCZ048-080445-
MADISON-
1138 PM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHWEST MADISON COUNTY THROUGH
1230 AM...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE FROM HOT SPRINGS TO ALLENSTAND
BY MIDNIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS THUNDERSTORM. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OF
40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH 1230 AM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1233 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

NCZ033-049-050-080645-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1233 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 130 AM...

AT 1230 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BULADEAN IN NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY.
THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH...AND WILL REACH
ELK PARK BY 1 AM...AND BEECH MOUNTAIN BY 115 AM. EXPECT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL..AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-080715-
AVERY-CALDWELL-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
MCDOWELL-BURKE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...MORGANTON...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON
103 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD THROUGH 3 AM. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM...AFFECTING MAINLY LOCATIONS
FROM THE SMOKIES SOUTHWARD. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BRYSON CITY TO
ROBBINSVILLE TO FRANKLIN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

NCZ051-059-062-063-080800-
MACON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...SYLVA
254 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MACON...SWAIN AND
JACKSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH PEA SIZE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM THROUGH 400 AM.

SBK