Damaging Wind in Nebraska, August 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM...

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FCSTING CHALLENGE IN THE
NEXT 12 HRS IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH AN APPG COLD FRONT. AS OF
19Z...THIS FEATURE EXTENDED FROM AROUND BASSETT NEBR...SSWD TO LBF.
MUCH DRIER AIR LOCATED BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPR 40S. CAP HAS REMAINED STRONG THROUGH MID
DAY AS THE 18Z LBF SOUNDING HAS 14C AT H7. ALSO HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY IS THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING JET STREAK. WV IMAGERY INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ND...INTO ERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. AM
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY 21Z WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OVER MY NERN ZONES. THESE AREAS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE SFC
FRONT...SO CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SURFACE BASED. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. AT
THIS JUNCTURE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES...WHERE WIND AND HAIL
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST. SHOULD BE MARGINAL THOUGH AS SFC TO 6 KM
SHEAR ONLY RANGES FROM 25 TO 35 KTS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT...STALLING ACROSS NRN
KS ON SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA PRECIPITATION
FREE. BY AFTERNOON...THETA E RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATING A
FAIRLY WET SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SETTING UP...WITH
PERSISTENT SERLY AND ERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH...PERSISTENT THETA E RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR
MONDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONDS DRY OUT ON
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND SRLY FLOW INCREASES EAST OF A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF FROM ERN MT TO ERN WY.

LONG RANGE (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY FROM MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONLY. TUESDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA...WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE CARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND WRN NEBRASKA. H7 TEMPS REMAIN WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY A
MARGINAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE THE WARMEST READINGS AT THIS JUNCTURE AS THE SURFACE TROF
APPROACHES...AND HAVE INCREASED TEMPS TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS TO BECOME SUPPRESSED LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS THE CANADIAN PACIFIC TROF APPROACHES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. BEST SUPPORT FOR PCPN WELL OFF TO THE NORTH SO
DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
227 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
227 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006 /127 PM MDT SAT AUG 5 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR AINSWORTH IN BROWN COUNTY...TO IMPERIAL IN
CHASE COUNTY. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 5 PM CDT THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TO HAVE BETTER
MOISTURE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND MOVE
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

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