Hail in Nebraska, August 5, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE
TIMING AND POSITION OF COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 18Z COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING. PREFRONTAL TROF STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROF. BOTH GFS AND NAM FAIRLY CLOSE IN MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PLACEMENT OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING WHERE IT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES OR BETTER ACROSS
THE CWA. RESULT IS CHANCE OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHEN BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS ALTHOUGH QPF FIELDS
MAY BE OVERDONE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER...I HOPE.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY BUT FOR NOW
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS
INITIALLY TRY TO REBUILD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE MEANS REMOP. 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER
BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY FRIDAY WHILE GFS AND REMOP HOLD A DAY
OR TWO LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY WENT MAINLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED AS
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES ACROSS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH
TEMPERATURE TRENDED TOWARD GUIDANCE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-052300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 5 PM AND WOULD GENERALLY BE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA BY LATE EVENING AND WOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BY
THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD OFF ALTOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA UNTIL SUNDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CRETE TO NEBRASKA CITY TO CLARINDA IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ALBION NEBRASKA TO ONAWA IOWA. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

NWS