Hail in Missouri, May 3, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

MCS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES HAVE AIDED
CONVECTION. OUR AREA WAS LIKELY STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON MCS OVER EASTERN OK.

ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN 850 MB THETA E AXIS.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAIN SHOW FOR OUR AREA TO BE WITH MCS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LINCOLN TO
SALINA.

CERTAINLY DO NOT WANT TO LOWER POPS TOO MUCH WITH MOIST AXIS AND
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TODAY. HOWEVER HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE
MORNING...WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY/S VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHERE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL HAVE GREATEST IMPACT.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STILL LOOKS PRETTY
WEAK...HOWEVER STILL SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL POTENTIAL AS PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER 1.25 INCHES...K INDICES EXCEED 30 AND CAPES
APPROACH 2000 J/KG.

COLD FRONT SLOWS TO A CRAWL OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OK
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. WILL
CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. PWATS REMAIN WELL OVER AN INCH...SO EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

TERRY
&&

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

MED RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN JUST IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE...BUT PLEASANT... TEMPS ARE ON TAP WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S (A FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY) AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. BY MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE UP TO
DEBATE THIS EARLY IN THE GAME...PARTICULARLY GIVEN INCREASING
ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED LOW END POPS AND RETURNED
TEMPS TO NEAR AVERAGE.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TIMING ON CONVECTION FROM
THE 06Z TAFS. COLD FRONT IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS APPEARS TO BE
SLOWING SOMEWHAT. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN MISSOURI STABILITY IS BEING
IMPACTED SOME BY MCS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS WELL.
STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES UP AROUND KMCI...BUT THAT
SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. SO WILL MOST
LIKELY BACK TIMING FOR CONVECTION TO GET GOING DOWN THIS WAY UNTIL
AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY TWEAK TAFS TO GO PREDOMINANT SHOWERS WITH
SOME TEMPO TSTMS. ONCE SHOWERS GET GOING...CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR...SO WILL KEEP WITH CEILINGS OF 1000 TO
2000 FEET EXPECTED AND VISIBILITIES.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
526 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
526 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
  WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
  ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
  STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
  ALSO...MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
  ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
  COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
  THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER...AND INTERACTS
  WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
433 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

MOZ097-106-031030-
HOWELL-OREGON-
433 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HOWELL AND OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 530
AM CDT...

AT 428 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF WEST PLAINS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
545 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     HAIL             2 S WEST PLAINS         36.70N 91.85W
05/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALONG HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF WEST PLAINS

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
826 AM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     HAIL             FRISTOE                 38.12N 93.28W
05/03/2006  E0.88 INCH       BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 65

&&

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
828 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

MOZ055-056-069-031430-
BENTON-CAMDEN-MORGAN-
828 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BENTON...CAMDEN AND MORGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 819 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARSAW...AND MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR LAURIE BY 850 AM CDT.
  NEAR VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS BY 900 AM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTH OF OSAGE BEACH BY 905 AM CDT.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JLT