Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, March 12, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SHORT-TERM MDLS (TIL WED)...ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH MASS FIELDS AND FEATURES THRU 84HRS. /GRAND FINALE/ OF OUR
ACTIVE WX PTRN TO OCCUR TNGT AS MAIN SHRTWV EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...BUT THIS IS ALSO SIGNALING A PTRN SHIFT FOR THE MID MS
VLY AS LONGWAVE H500 TROF SHIFTS FM THE WRN CONUS TO THE ERN CONUS
AND LONGWAVE RDG AMPLIFIES IN THE WRN CONUS. THIS PTRN SHIFT EXPCD
TO BE COMPLETE BY MID WEEK...AND WL FORETELL A MUCH QUIETER...
COOLER PTRN. AT THE SFC...STG MIGRATORY LO PRES OVR KS WL MOV NEWD
INTO THE GRTLKS RGN BY MONDAY WITH HI PRES BLD IN BY TUES.

FOR TNGT...WRMFNT EXPCD TO BE IN THE NRN FA AT THE START OF THIS
PD...AND SHUD COMPLETE ITS PUSH THRU THE NRN FA DURG ERY
EVNG...SETTING MANY AREAS UP FOR THEIR MAX TEMPS OF THE DAY. LRG
SUPERCELLS OVR WRN MO ATTM WL ENTER INTO A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES AS THEY PUSH FURTHER N...AND THIS WL BE
MAIN FCST THREAT ERY ON. WITH SGFNT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY STILL BHND THESE SUPERCELLS HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET...AND EXPC ADDITIONAL DVLPMT TO OCCUR ALG DRY LN BY LATE
THIS AFTN AS WELL AS MORE ISOLD CONVECTION IN OTR PARTS OF THE FA.
WITH FA IN THE WRM SECTOR TNGT AND ESPECIALLY AFT DRY LN PUSHES
THRU AND SHIFTS SFC WNDS TO SWLY...RATHER DP MIXING EXPCD
AREAWIDE AND WL PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING OFF MUCH. ONLY EXCPTN WL
BE IN THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FA WHERE STG LO LVL CAA WL HV ALREADY
MOVD IN WITH THE CDFNT. PREFERRED MAV/MET MOS BLEND ON TEMPS.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP WITH DRY SLOT OF SYS
DOMINATING THINGS FIRST...AND THEN WRAPAROUND CLDS IN THE LATE
MRNG AND AFTN. DP MIXING TO CONT...AND WL PROMOTE WINDY CONDS. STG
LO LVL CAA DURG MRNG/ERY AFTN AND RPDLY FALLING H850 TEMPS WL
FORCE MOST LOCNS TO RECORD THEIR MAX TEMPS DURG THE MRNG WITH
STEADY OR SLOLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN. PSBL /PARTING SHOT/ OF
SPKLS DURG MID-LATE MRNG IN THE NRN FA.

TES

NAM/GFS HAVE THE SAME IDEA GOING INTO MIDWEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
SINKS SEWD INTO AR BY TUESDAY EVENING. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE SETS IN
BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH...SO KEPT DRY WEATHER GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM WITHIN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE WITH LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS LOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO INTRODUCE CHC OF RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WRMFNT NOW BEGINNING TO MOV THRU THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE LO CLDS ARE VACATING AND BCMG MORE CUMULIFORM. EXPC
BULK OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY THRU THIS AFTN TO BE ALG/N OF THE WRMFNT
WITH ADDITIONAL DVLPMT OCCURRING LATE AFTN AND THIS EVNG IN OTR
LOCNS ACRS THE FA WHERE DRYLN WL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THRU LTR THIS
EVNG AND OVRNGT. ONCE THE LO CLDS CLR OUT FM S TO N...SHUD BE
PREDOMINANTLY LO VFR CIGS WITH LWR CIGS IN TSRA. DRY SLOT WL WORK
INTO AREA LATE TNGT AND CLR OUT CLDS...BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY FOR
THE NRN FA WHERE WRAPAROUND CLDS WL SWING THRU FM THE NW DURG
MONDAY MRNG.

TES

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WL ALLOW FFA TO CONT THRU LATE TNGT. SETUP FOR TSRA IS NOT YOUR
/CLASSIC/ SETUP...AS CONVECTION SHUD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED OVR
THIS AREA WHEN COMPARED WITH LAST NGT...BUT GIVEN THE COPIOUS
AMNTS OF RAFL RECEIVED IN THE WATCH AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT
WON/T TAKE MUCH TO REINITIATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY
AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND MORE VULNERABLE AREAS IN THE ERN
OZARKS.

TWO PRINCIPLE AREAS TO WATCH...A STRIPE OF 2-4 OF RAFL RECEIVED
YESTERDAY AND LAST NGT FM SRN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO NRN RANDOLPH IL
AND SRN WASHINGTON COUNTY IL.

AND ANOTHER STRIPE OF HVY RAFL RECEIVED OF 1-2 FM CNTRL REYNOLDS
COUNTY TO NRN MADISON COUNTY MO.

TES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS        54  59  31  49 /  80  10  10  10
QUINCY          43  49  27  45 /  80  20  10  10
COLUMBIA        45  51  28  51 /  70  10  10  10
JEFFERSON CITY  47  53  29  52 /  70  10  10  10
SALEM           60  64  32  48 /  80  30  10  10
FARMINGTON      59  63  32  51 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-
     JEFFERSON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-
     FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-101-102-MOZ065-072>075-084-085-099-
131200-
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-
MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST. CLAIR IL-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
331 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 73 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN AS
ISOLATED INITIALLY...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
THRESHOLDS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND A FEW
STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...LAW ENFORCEMENT AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS VOLATILE SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCY
SITUATIONS.

ILZ058>060-095>100-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>052-
059>064-131200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-
GASCONADE-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
WARREN-
331 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...TORNADO WATCH 73 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL
MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND A FEW STRONG LONG-
TRACK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. WEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...LAW ENFORCEMENT AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS VOLATILE SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCY
SITUATIONS.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     HAIL             1 S PALMYRA             39.78N 91.52W
03/12/2006  M0.88 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1212 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             FALL CREEK              39.78N 91.30W
03/12/2006  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL COVERS THE HIGHWAY.

1205 PM     HAIL             4 ENE PLAINVILLE        39.81N 91.11W
03/12/2006  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERS THE GROUND.

&&

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1224 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TORNADO          3 WSW RENSSELAER        39.65N 91.60W
03/12/2006                   RALLS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOUCHED DOWN IN OPEN FIELD AND DAMAGED ONE FARM
            OUTBUILDING.

&&

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     HAIL             KINGSTON                39.82N 91.03W
03/12/2006  M0.88 INCH       ADAMS              IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

TILLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1255 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-122200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...CHESTER...
COLUMBIA...EDWARDSVILLE...FARMINGTON...HANNIBAL...
JEFFERSON CITY...LITCHFIELD...MEXICO...QUINCY...SALEM...
ST CHARLES...ST LOUIS...UNION...VANDALIA
1255 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THREATEN PARTS OF MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE RAPID AND THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...SO BE CERTAIN TO
CAREFULLY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOT THESE RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

TODAYS CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS
AFTERNOONS SITUATION. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
LONG LIVED VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE.

THE TORNADOES AND SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF
KNOWING TORNADO SAFETY RULES. THEREFORE...WE ARE ASKING PUBLIC
AND COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS TO BROADCAST THE FOLLOWING
TORNADO SAFETY RULES TO THEIR LISTENERS AND VIEWERS. FOR MANY
PEOPLE...THESE RULES WILL BE AN IMPORTANT REMINDER OF WHAT TO DO
IF A TORNADO OR SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS THEIR AREA...AND MAY BE A
LIFE SAVER.

THE KEY TO TORNADO SURVIVAL IS TO BE PREPARED  TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED OR WHEN YOU FEEL THREATENED...YOU
MAY HAVE ONLY SECONDS TO ACT.  REMEMBER...THE ACTIONS YOU TAKE
DURING A TORNADO EVENT MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE AND THE LIVES OF THOSE
YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...KEEP INFORMED OF
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. THESE STORMS CAN DEVELOP RAPIDLY SO
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONS WHEN ADVANCE WARNING IS NOT POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS A TORNADO HAS BEEN SPOTTED OR INDICATED BY
RADAR. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OR NEAR THE TORNADO...TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THESE SAFETY RULES:

1) IN OPEN COUNTRY...FIND A DITCH...CULVERT OR OTHER LOW AREA AND
LAY DOWN FLAT. COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS FOR PROTECTION.

2) IN HOMES OR SMALL BUILDINGS...GO TO THE BASEMENT OR TO A SMALL
ALL-INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR LIKE A HALL OR BATHROOM
CLOSET. USE HEAVY FURNITURE FOR SHELTER OR COVER YOURSELF WITH A
MATTRESS OR BLANKET.

3) IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...ABANDON IT AND GO TO A SUBSTANTIAL
STRUCTURE OR PLACE OF SAFETY. NEVER TRY AND OUT RUN A TORNADO BY
AUTOMOBILE.

4) IN SCHOOLS...HOSPITALS...FACTORIES OR SHOPPING CENTERS...GO TO DESIGNATED
SHELTER AREAS. INTERIOR HALLS ON THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE USUALLY THE
BEST. STAY AWAY FROM GYMNASIUMS OR AUDITORIUMS. AVOID ALL OUTSIDE
WALLS AND WINDOWS.

TRUETT/CARNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
426 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

MOZ034>036-041-042-047>051-130000-
AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-
RALLS-
426 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

TWO LONG LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS
OF MISSOURI.  THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MONITEAU...BOONE...
NORTHERN CALLAWAY...AUDRAIN AND MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.  THIS
IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AS THESE STORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE TORNADOES...HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  ACT NOW TO PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS
WEATHER AND TAKE COVER AS WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

BRITT/BYRD