Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM...

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ALONG THE HIGHWAY 65
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR THE SMALL BUT HEAVY CORES AND
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET.

HEAT ADVISORY HAS VERIFIED NICELY WITH INDICES OF 105 TO 110
REPORTED ALONG THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER FROM JOPLIN TO NEVADA THEN
EAST INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA.

DESPITE WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE HEAT...COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS...AND WITH BOTH WRF AND GFS
HOLDING ON TO THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE WITH THE EXPECTED FRONT TO SLOWLY
EASE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WHILE GFS AND WRF ARE SIMILAR...GFS HAS
OBVIOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE HIGH
PLAINS AND LEADING TO POTENT MCS TONIGHT.   HAVE TENDED TOWARD
SLOWER AND DRIER WRF...WITH MOST...BUT NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE WESTERLIES...OR NORTH OF THE SGF CWA THROUGH
MONDAY.  THE SGF CWA WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA THOUGH AS CAPES
EXCEED 3000 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FROPA EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE MISSOURI BORDER
LATE MONDAY.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AS CONVERGENCE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.

IN THE LONGER TERM...
HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE FRONT BECOMES
RE-ENERGIZED AS THE TROF DIGS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND SHORTWAVES
ROTATE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF ALONG THE WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS UPDATED FOR TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR KSGF WITH BASICALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 2130Z...WITH VCTS TIL 00Z. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNSET. JLT

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...HEAT ADVISORY NW OF A LAMAR TO WARSAW LINE 18-00Z TODAY.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY 18-00Z TODAY.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
101 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
100 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB STILL HIGHER WITH
AREAS WEST OF A JOPLIN TO WARSAW LINE EXPECTED TO SEE INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE FEW...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES
FORM WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD MONDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A TAD COOLER ON TUESDAY...THEN INDEX
READINGS WILL LIKELY AGAIN TOP 100 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

RUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
08/06/2006                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF KEARNEY AND
            DALE...KEARNEY AND ROGERS...AND KEARNEY AND DELWARE.

&&

JTAGGART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
08/06/2006                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AT PAYNE GOLF
            COURSE AT THE INTERSECTION OF 44 AND GLENSTONE.

&&

JTAGGART